JACK DYER University of Tasmania

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Presentation transcript:

JACK DYER University of Tasmania CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, COSTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL AND PACIFIC MARITIME SUPPLY CHAINS JACK DYER University of Tasmania

Global Mean Surface Temperature, Climate Change Projections

Yearly Occurrence of Pacific Climate-Related Natural Disasters

Global Sea Level Rise, Climate Change Risk Projections

Defining A ‘Maritime’ Supply Chain For A Commodity

CLIMATE CHANGE LONG TERM RISKS SEA LEVEL RISE AIR, LAND AND OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN WIND VELOCITY CHANGES IN CURRENTS, WAVE ENERGY AND SEDIMENTATION CHANGES IN SPECIES MIGRATION AND BIODIVERSITY

CLIMATE CHANGE SUDDEN, SHORT TERM RISKS STORMS/SUPERSTORM SURGES AND FLOODS HURRICANES/CYCLONES, DROUGHTS HEATWAVES LANDSLIDES TSUNAMIS

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK EVENT IMPACT COSTS Loss of life Physical Damage to assets, cargo commodity, infrastructure to operations and performance, to other supply chains Threat to Navigation/Physical Accessibility Financial Cost –Adaptation, Repair, Lost Profits, Storage, Taxes, Insurance, Chartering Costs –vessels –fixed and operating, Health/Safety Environmental Communication, Information and Warning Systems Delay To Throughput/Productivity Opportunity Cost Reputational Cost, Administrative, Marketing, Legal; Policy Changes in Competitiveness Potential Trade Diversion/Intermodal Shift

CLIMATE CHANGE SUPPLY CHAIN ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS Producers, Retail/Distributors and Other Stakeholders Consumers/Customers Information Gathering/Early Warning Systems Acquiring information Communication Responsive to communications Education/training, risk management, disaster and emergency response Prioritising climate change awareness Physical engineering, elevation, relocation Possible migration/relocation Natural engineering/environmental rehabilitation, greenhouse gas mitigation Increasing environmental sustainability Intermodalism Flexible delivery arrangements Flexibility – changing operations, markets, routes, commodities/input sourcing Altering preferences, sourcing, supply and demand Investing in new/modifying existing technology, equipment/processes Changing demand/altering preferences Responding to government legal, tax and regulatory policy changes

CLIMATE CHANGE LITERATURE RESPONSE STRATEGIES Mitigation Ecological Rehabilitation Retreat/Surrender Elevation Migration Adaptation

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PROJECTS REALITY CHECK Jack Dyer

Climate Change and Maritime Supply Chains Adaptation Strategy Reality Check Evaluation Criteria

CLIMATE CHANGE OPPORTUNITIES Pacific Climate Futures –Projections (Information Uncertainty). Paris COP21….Climate Adapt 2016 Adelaide…. Pacific Legislation Climateproofing of Avatiu, Mangaia, Pohnpei Harbour Renewable vessel energy Trade Diversion/Trade Creation Climate Change Financing Sources Community Awareness and activism –coal… Pacific community stakeholder case studies mitigation, adaptation, ecological rehabilitation, migration, elevation and relocation… Current PHD…..

JACK DYER

Any questions ? ? ? Please also feel free to contact me via email at: Jack.Dyer@utas.edu.au

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