A Comparison of In-Situ Data with Meso-Scale Forecasts

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Presentation transcript:

A Comparison of In-Situ Data with Meso-Scale Forecasts Keith Williams 20 SEP 01

Objective: To determine the skill of meso-scale models in forecasting strong low level inversions and associated increased Wind speeds. Background: On leg two of the OC 3570 cruise, surface winds in excess of 30kts were observed while rawinsonde data showed a sharp inversion at ~500m (~950mb) and rapid decrease in wind speed with height. Comparison: MM5 Analyses and 36, 24 & 12 hour forecasts were compared with 4 sondes that were launched closest to synoptic hours. MM5 fields of interest were MSLP, 980mb, 840mb, Skew-T, and vertical cross sections.

LEGEND Each slide is for one valid time. Forecasts from previous model runs are shown with each valid time. Example: “06/00z 36hr fcst” is the 36 hour forecast from the 04/12z model run and is for the valid time 06/00z.

Balloons of Interest #6 07/21Z #7 08/00Z #5 07/17Z #4 07/01Z #3 06/20Z

06/00z 36hr fcst 06/00z 24hr fcst 06/00z 840mb 06/00z 12h fcst 06/00z anal

06/00z 36hr fcst 06/00z 24hr fcst 06/00z 980mb 06/00z 12hr fcst 06/00z anal

06/00z 24hr fcst 06/00z 36hr fcst 06/00z MSLP 06/00z 12hr fcst 06/00z anal

06/00 36hr fcst 06/00 24hr fcst Balloon 1 06/01z 06/00 12hr fcst 06/00 anal

Balloon 1

06/12z 36hr fcst 06/12z 24hr fcst 06/12z 840mb 06/12z 12hr fcst 06/12z anal

06/12z 36hr fcst 06/12z 24hr fcst 06/12z 980mb 06/12z 12hr fcst 06/12z anal

06/12z 24hr fcst 06/12z 36hr fcst 06/12z MSLP 06/12z 12hr fcst 06/12z anal

06/12 36hr fcst 06/12 24hr fcst Balloon 2 06/13z 06/12 12hr fcst 06/12 anal

Balloon 2

Balloon 3

07/00z 36hr fcst 07/00z 24hr fcst 07/00z 840mb 07/00z 12hr fcst 07/00z anal

07/00z 36hr fcst 07/00z 24hr fcst 07/00z 980mb 07/00z 12hr fcst 07/00z anal

07/00 36hr fcst 07/00 24hr fcst Balloon 4 07/01z 07/00 12hr fcst 07/00 anal

07/00z 36hr fcst 07/00z 24hr fcst 07/00z MSLP 07/00z 12hr fcst 07/00z anal

Balloon 4

V2 V1 #4 07/01Z V3

07/00 36hr fcst 07/00 24hr fcst Vertical 3 07/00z 07/00 12hr fcst 07/00 anal

07/12z 36hr fcst 07/12z 24hr fcst 07/12z 840mb 07/12z 12hr fcst 07/12z anal NOT AVAILABLE

07/12z 36hr fcst 07/12z 24hr fcst 07/12z 980mb 07/12z 12hr fcst 07/12z anal NOT AVAILABLE

07/12z 36hr fcst 07/12z 24hr fcst 07/12z MSLP 07/12z 12hr fcst 07/12z anal NOT AVAILABLE

08/00z 840mb 08/00z 36hr fcst 08/00z 24hr fcst

08/00z 980mb 08/00z 36hr fcst 08/00z 24hr fcst

08/00z MSLP 08/00z 36hr fcst 08/00z 24hr fcst

Balloon 7 08/00z 08/00 36hr fcst 08/00 24hr fcst

Balloon 7

Conclusions: MM5 was able to identify the low level inversion. The model correctly forecast the wind direction with height. Although increases in winds were forecast, the model was off by as much as 10kts at times. Vertical cross-sections are easier to interpret than vertical soundings. The excellent performance of this mesoscale model should not replace the value added by the forecaster. Specifically, the under-forecast of the model with respect to surface wind speeds could be compensated for by a forecaster.