Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS)

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Presentation transcript:

Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS) SERVIR-Mekong

RHEAS (Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System) A hydrologic now-cast and forecast framework Developed by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Crop Simulation Model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) RHEAS makes traditionally un-spatial modelling systems to spatial Hydrological Model VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity model) RHEAS allows forecasts as well Database PostGIS (Spatially enabled PostgresSQL)

Nowcast & Forecast Configuration at SERVIR Mekong AS: Assimilation, SM: Soil moisture; BF: Base Flow; RO: Runoff; E: Evaporation; EB: Energy Balance; WB: Water Balance; ESP: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction;

Data Inputs Variable Dataset Tim. Cov. Temp. Res Spat. Res Spatial Coverage Table Mode Precipitation CHIRPS 1981- Daily 5km Global precip.chirps IN TRMM 1998- 0.25 o precip.trmm RFE2 2001- 0.10 o Africa precip.rfe2 CMORPH precip.cmorph GPM 2014- precip.gpm Temp/Wind NCEP 1.875 o *.ncep PRISM 4km CONUS *.prism Soil moisture AMSR-E 2002-2011 soilm.amsre AS SMOS 2009- ~40km soilm.smos SMAP 2015- 3/9km soilm.smap Evapotranspiration MOD16 2000- 8 days 1km evap.modis Water storage GRACE 2002- Monthly 1.0 o tws.grace Snow cover MOD10 snow.mod10 MODSCAG snow.modscag Leaf Area Index MCD15 lai.modis Meteorology IRI 2.5 o *.iri FC NMME 0.5 o *.nmme

Data Inputs Variable Dataset Tim. Cov. Temp. Res Spat. Res Spatial Coverage Table Mode Precipitation CHIRPS 1981- Daily 5km Global precip.chirps IN Temp/Wind NCEP 1.875 o *.ncep Soil moisture SMOS/SMAP 2009- ~40km soilm.smos AS Meteorology NMME 2000- 0.5 o *.nmme FC

esp iri/nmme Forecast Approach Currently Being Used (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach that resamples the climatology) - Forecast for 90 days iri/nmme (resample climatologies based on the probabilities in IRI/NMME meteorological forcing) - Forecast for 90 days

Nowcast and Forecast Outputs Resolution of the output products is 25km Drought: SPI (1,3,6,12): Standardized Precipitation IndexM SRI (1,3,6,12): Standardized Runoff IndexH SMDI: Soil Moisture Deficit IndexA Dry Spells: Number of dry spell events with at least 2-week durationA RZSM: Root Zone Soil MoistureA Drought SeverityA Soil: Soil temperature for each soil layer (3 layers: 0-10cm, 10-40cm and 40-100cm) Soil total moisture content [mm] for each soil layer (3 layers: 0-10cm, 10-40cm and 40-100cm)

Nowcast and Forecast Outputs Resolution of the output products is 25km Water Balance: Baseflow Runoff Rainfall Total net evaporation Energy Balance: Surface temperature Net downward shortwave flux Net downward longwave flux Net upward latent heat flux Net upward sensible heat flux Net heat flux into ground

Ensemble Forecasts (SPI/SRI-1) Oct-2017 SPI-1 Oct-2017

Ensemble Forecasts (SPI/SRI-1) Nov-2017 SRI-1 Nov-2017

How to Improve RHEAS outputs Bias correction of input data Data assimilation [SM (SMOS, SMAP, AMSRE), LAI, ET, SNOW] Ensemble runs [ex: 10/40 runs] Calibration of VIC and DSSAT models

Classification of Drought Indices For SPI, SRI and SMDI

Classification of Drought Indices High Probability for Drought Conditions Low Probability for Drought Conditions

Thank You!!