Turnover survey on the services sector, Retail Trade and Other services Presentation by Daniel Lennartsson 2009-06-29/30 Mail daniel.lennartsson@scb.se Authors: Annika Lindblom and Markus Thorsteinsen

Disposition Demands from users Method until 2007 Surveydesign today VAT legislation Aim of this project Is it possible to use VAT data First study concerning first quarter 2009

1. Demands from users – Retail trade Activity breakdown Timeliness Periodicity Eurostat Main aggregates T+30 Monthly Details T+60 National accounts Details-38 activities T+45 (T+25) Quarterly Swedish retail Institute Details-15 activities Others (NB, Ministry, NIER)

1. Demands from users – Other services Activity breakdown Timeliness Periodicity Eurostat Details T+60 Quarterly National accounts Details-88 activities T+45 (T+25) Others (NB, Ministry, NIER) Main aggregates T+30 Monthly

2. Survey method on Other services until 2007 The Swedish parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from January 2008 in the VAT data Demands from users changed from January 2008 from quarterly to monthly Until 2008 we used a mixture of: administrative data (VAT) from the Swedish Tax Authority – used for all small enterprises Current Ratio Method used for imputation data collected from questionnaires – used for all large enterprises a few NACE acitivties were based only on questionnaires

2. Effects of the new regulation Due to effect of the change demands from users it was hard to use VAT data before it was investigated Due to timeliness VAT data for small enterprises is complicated to use in the survey on Other services The change in return period for small enterprises meant that Stat Sweden was forced to collect the information direct from enterprises Response burden increased

3. Surveydesign today Retail trade: Monthly survey to approx 2 700 enterprises each month Preliminary results after T+28 and definite results after T+58 Other services: Monthly survey to approx 4 500 enterprises each month. Results Total service production and six aggregates. T+35 - Quarterly suvey to additional 5 500 enterprise. Monthly information collected. Results for 88 activities. T+45

4. VAT- Change in the legislation The Swedish Parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from first January 2008, regarding small enterprises. Enterprises with an estimated annual turnover: exceeding 40 million SEK are, as before, required to report VAT on a monthly basis below or equal to 40 million SEK are required to report VAT on a quarterly basis

4. Time points for submission of the VAT-return The VAT-return for a large monthly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 25 days after the end of the reference month The VAT-return for a small quarterly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 40 days after the end of the reference quarter Statistics Sweden need the VAT-data about 35 days after the end of the reference quarter

5. Aim of this project Statistics Sweden approach is to: use a sample survey (and collect information direct from the enterprises) for a monthly indicator explore the possibility to use VAT-data for small enterprises in the production of the detailed quarterly estimates Study different methods to use observed values in the VAT-data to compensate for enterprises not submitted the VAT return, due to timeliness.

6. Turnover after reference period Nace Year basis Quaterly Monthly Total Share 50 4 120 32 242 361 625 397 987 11 51 10 373 81 952 1 162 112 1 254 436 34 52 6 830 57 856 348 258 412 945 55 3 695 27 883 69 863 101 441 3 60 2 652 20 638 138 404 161 694 4 61 258 1 433 36 042 37 733 1 62 959 49 411 50 381 63 1 391 12 073 177 731 191 195 5 64 844 1 290 185 971 188 105 70 2 796 39 514 105 846 148 156 71 450 4 606 26 122 31 178 72 2 671 20 532 134 724 157 928 73 281 1 395 88 894 90 570 2 74 7 091 70 045 275 974 353 111 9 90 66 1 132 18 270 19 468 92 478 4 790 60 167 65 435 93 415 3 783 12 934 17 132 45 750 391 358 3 301 429 3 738 537 100

6. Proportion of turnover after reference period Nace Year basis Quaterly Monthly small Monthly Large Share 50 1 8 15 75 100 51 7 9 84 52 2 14 19 66 55 4 27 37 31 60 13 54 61 87 62 3 95 63 6 10 83 64 98 70 21 71 20 72 73 74 23 90 12 82 92 93 22 44 32 Totalt

6. Proportion of enterprises after referenceperiod Nace Year basis Quaterly Monthly small Monthly Large Share 50 7 34 53 5 100 51 39 43 11 52 10 2 55 12 36 1 60 28 64 61 40 41 9 62 6 37 23 63 46 13 70 18 49 31 71 48 4 72 73 21 38 74 15 90 29 54 92 25 35 93 32 58 Totalt 3

6. Proportion of turnover that has been reported within 38 days after the expiredate of the reference period NACE For all Periods One month of three Two month of three* No data** Share 50 80 11 9 100 51 87 5 7 52 72 13 15 55 41 27 32 60 61 24 89 62 95 2 3 63 86 6 64 98 1 70 12 25 71 16 76 8 73 96 74 14 23 90 84 92 85 93 44 31 Totalt 79 10 * In this group 97 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises ** In this group 26 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises and 69 procent from quaterly reporting companies

6. Imputation data for monthly providers Activity Data for all three months Data for two out of three months Share 50 11 812 40 969 22 51 25 235 61 291 29 52 14 311 50 464 55 5 432 25 342 18 60 7 421 37 994 16 61 708 1 994 26 62 109 1 064 9 63 4 037 11 379 64 266 956 70 8 510 16 463 34 71 1 208 3 887 24 72 4 151 11 354 27 73 1 100 1 852 37 74 14 364 46 648 90 439 1 491 23 92 899 3 475 21 93 1 188 5 207 19 Totalt 105 485 335 500

6. Imputation data for quarterly providers Activity Data for a whole quarter No data Share 50 18 824 25 010 43 51 45 327 61 634 42 52 25 932 45 878 36 55 10 446 22 643 32 60 11 642 16 343 61 777 1 363 62 206 861 19 63 6 497 9 605 40 64 582 972 37 70 19 679 28 218 41 71 2 307 3 487 72 8 338 16 165 34 73 1 476 1 019 59 74 28 987 55 247 90 714 857 45 92 1 814 3 844 93 1 995 2 929 Totalt 191 817 303 240 39

7. Study concerning the first quarter year 2009 The objective of the study was to evaluate differences between estimates based only on observed VAT-data and estimates based on VAT-data where imputation has been used for a number of enterprises due to timeliness. VAT-data on all four quarters year 2008 can be observed At this time point, VAT-data for all enterprises regarding the first quarter year 2009 can be observed

7. Enterprises in the frame population by VAT-return period first quarter year 2009

7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting monthly and need for imputation Due to timeliness the third month often is missing in the VAT-data for a specific quarter (about 80% of the monthly enterprises) To produce quarterly estimates using VAT- data values for the third month has to be imputed for the majority of the small monthly enterprises Current Ratio Imputation (by industry)

7. Current Ratio imputation The current ratio imputation works as follows: The imputed turnover value for enterprise k month three: enterprise k:s turnover value month one enterprise k:s turnover value month two enterprise k:s turnover value month three

7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting quarterly and need for imputation Due to timeliness values for the specific quarter often is missing in the VAT-data (about 82% of the quarterly enterprises) Two imputation methods were used: -Current Ratio Imputation (by industry) -Imputation by average in strata (based on industry and size)

7. Imputation of quarterly enterprises The monthly enterprises imputed by CR are regarded as observed values when the quarterly enterprises is CR or AV imputed For enterprises with an observed value Q1 2009 , use VAT-data for all four quarters year 2008 in the CR imputation Impute missing quarterly enterprises with the turnover average in stratum, based on observed and imputed values for monthly enterprises Q1 2009

7. Proportion of total turnover, observed and imputed due to timeliness

7. Observed values vs imputed values by CR imputation and imputation by average in strata, AV