CLIMATE CHANGE Data Driven Analysis

Earth’s Climate Has Undergone Many Changes Warm Cold Icy Not icy How do they know past climates? Recent – data records Historic records – further into human history: droughts, floods, etc Paleoclimates – deduce from ‘proxies’: Ice cores, tree rings, coral growth, sediment deposits (CaCO3)

Annual temps vary, but the trend is clear: a Warming Atmosphere

Increasing Rates Of Warming Compare line slope

Temperature is correlated with CO2 Year-by-year atmospheric CO2

Fossil fuel use > CO2 byproduct > Warming Temperature Fossil Fuel use Lagged means 25 time lag (time for atmospheric build up)

Compounding factor: permafrost methane Methane released as soil thaws from the atmosphere. Methane's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2 Impact of CH4 is 20x that of CO2

Factoring in all predicted greenhouse gas concentrations Same trend Different models The UN Climate Change Report (1/10)

well, not quite

RAMIFICATIONS OF WARMING

Warming Oceans 3 studies, same pattern Bionteractive video https://www.hhmi.org/biointeractive/coral-bleaching

Warming Land Glaciers receding Earlier snow melt

Reduced ice cover in the arctic Extent of ice cover year Ted Ed (20 min)

Warmer water leads to rising sea levels Past 300 years 20th century

Ocean Acidification CO2 + H2O -> carbonic acid

Ecosystem Change 100ybp: found at altitude 7800’ and higher ex: expansion of desert ecosystems Alpine chipmunk Neotamias alpinus Grinnell resurvey project: a century of change Butterflies expanding ranges northward Birds migrating earlier 100ybp: found at altitude 7800’ and higher Today: 9800’ and higher At this rate, no more habitat in ~40 years

Increased Extinctions Golden Toad Incilius periglenes >native to Costa Rica >not seen since 1989 Grinnell resurvey project a century of change The sixth mass extinction of life on Earth

Despite the evidence… • International consensus 174 nations • Extensive studies 12,000 papers video recap • Exhaustive peer review 90,000 comments • Scientific consensus 1250 scientists 97:3 video mute at 0:48 & 1:06 skeptical –> raise questions deny –> refuse The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology. Update on Orestes paper: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 John Oliver swears, do not start at the start! https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/may/23/john-oliver-best-climate-debate-ever

..not all are convinced • There is not a social consensus • Skeptics question evidence • Deniers refuse to consider evidence • Although there is a scientific consensus based on research evidence • There is not a social consensus based on each persons culture, politics, worldview, ideology U.S. Senator J. Imhofe, Oklahoma Environmental and Public Works Committee Author: The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future. The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 Why Imhofe? Senator James (Jim) Inhofe is the senior senator from Oklahoma and a member of the Republican Party. He is a ranking majority member and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. [63], [3] According to OpenSecrets.org, Inhofe has received almost $2 million in political contributions from the coal and oil industry. Koch Industries is Inhofe's top contributor, having contributed at least $105,150 since 1989. Murray Energy is the second-largest, at over $90,000. [44] In 2003, the Natural Resources Defense Council repoted Inhofe has scored zero with the League of Conservation Voters since 1997 and “was the only senator to oppose Everglades restoration, and once compared the Environmental Protection Agency to the Gestapo.” [5] Inhofe has made regular speeches opposing global warming, and has consistently voted in favor of big oil companies on oil-related bills. [6] “A deliberately fabricated falsehood made to masquerade as truth.”

And the public

*All Have Costs! * * * Options Opposing actions take action no action global warming is real not warming *All Have Costs! mitigate adapt reduced effects * * continued CO2 output more effects Opposing claims new tech new industries no change (ignore evidence) *

Demographic trends

Juliana v US

http://www. livescience. com/common/media/video/player. php http://www.livescience.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=GoldilocksGreen (6 min) http://videos.howstuffworks.com/hsw/22369-extreme-climate-the-role-of-the-greenhouse-effect-video.htm (6min) Look for more at How Stuff Works Sci Amer Frontiers http://www.hulu.com/watch/23343/scientific-american-frontiers-hot-planet-%E2%80%93-cold-comfort (22 min) http://www.movieweb.com/tv/TVLsmRLNaWMHQM/season-20-earth-day-message-heating Minute Earth