Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE CAFE Steering Group Brussels, May 17-18, 2004

Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Driving forces Emission control options BASELINE PROJECTION OPTIMIZATION Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Environmental targets Health and environmental impacts

Preparation of input data

Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics Comments on PRIMES projections Obvious discrepancies Differences in expectations Emission calculations: Review of year 2000 emission inventory Penetration rates of control measures Emission control potential for SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM10/2.5

Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark - 16 Jan 04 Y Latvia 08 Oct 03 EUROPIA 2-3 Oct 03 2 05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04 EURELECTRIC 30-31 Oct 03 4 Hungary 14 Nov 03 1 Germany 20-21 Nov 03 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Czech Republic 25 Nov 03 3 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 ACEA 12 Dec 03 10 Italy 15-16 Dec 03 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 France 8-9 Jan 04 5 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 Sweden 22-23 Jan 04 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 UK 26-28 Jan 04 8 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Spain 4-5 Feb 04 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. . scen Portugal 12-13 Feb 04 5 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y Belgium 16-17 Feb 04 7 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 - Austria 23 Feb 04 11 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 Ireland 4-5/19 Mar 04 2 12,19 Mar 04 ESVOC 8 Mar 04 3 Finland 8-9 Mar 04 19,25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 (Y) Lithuania 10 Mar 04 24 Mar 04 Estonia 12 Mar 04 17 Mar 04 Slovakia 15 Mar 04 22 Mar 04 Poland 17-18 Mar 04 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 Slovenia 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 Netherlands 25-26 Mar 04 4 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 19 + 4 94 21 14 10 Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

CAFE energy baseline projections Two draft baseline projections – available include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area) National projections - will be implemented by June Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted Revised PRIMES projection (with climate) by June

Approach for baseline emission projections Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%) Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 Takes international and national legislation into account Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

Next steps End of May 2004 Deadline for further comments on emissions from MS June 2004 Incorporate national scenarios Settle feedbacks on emission scenarios Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate measures) taking into account country comments September 2004 Presentation of final CAFE baseline scenarios Start first set of policy scenarios

Draft baseline emission projections

Energy projections

Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

CO2 emissions relative to 2000!

Agricultural projections

Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 EU-15 New Member States Cattle Pigs Chicken Other animals

SO2 emissions

Comparison of 2000 SO2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

SO2 emissions Measures: Large Combustion Plant Directive S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

SO2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x---------------- Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

SO2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

Projected SO2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected SO2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NOx emissions

Comparison of 2000 NOx inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NOx emissions Assumed measures: LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards Standards for motorcycles and mopeds Legislation on non-road mobile machinery Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

NOx emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

NOx emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

VOC emissions

Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

VOC emissions Assumed measures: Stage I Directive Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters) Auto/Oil EURO standards Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels) Solvents Directive Product Directive (paints) National legislation, e.g., Stage II

VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 6510kt 2000 4000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Stationary combustion Mobile sources Fuel extraction+distribution Industrial processes Solvents

VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NH3 emissions

Comparison of 2000 NH3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NH3 emissions Assumed measures: No EU-wide legislation National legislations Current practice

NH3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

NH3 emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt

Projected NH3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NH3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

PM2.5 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

PM emissions Assumed measures: LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards Standards for motorcycles and mopeds Legislation on non-road mobile machinery IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other "Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other "Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions Waste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions Waste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

Draft conclusions General downwards trend in emissions caused by Legislation on transport emissions Further penetration of natural gas Large Combustion Plant Directive Larger improvements in New Member States Caveats: National energy projections might differ from PRIMES Further validation of emission estimates necessary More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

Provisional estimates! Air quality impacts Provisional estimates!

PM2.5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for no further climate measures scenario, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003, EMEP Eulerian model

Inter-annual meteorological variability Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2003 average 1999 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000, EMEP Eulerian model

Loss in life expectancy

Loss in life expectancy 2000 2010 2020 Loss in average life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (days) Mean meteorology Preliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

Loss in life expectancy due to PM2 Loss in life expectancy due to PM2.5 Inter-annual meteorological variability 2003 Mean 1999 Loss in average life expectancy (days) Due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions of 2000 Preliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included! PM10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Six months (April-September) Ozone AOT40 Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

AOT40 2000 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

AOT40 2000 2010 2020 Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours] 2000 2010 2020 Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours] Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Six months (April-September) Ozone AOT60 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

AOT60 (ppm.hours) 2000 2010 2020 Mean meteorology, April-September

Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Excess of forest critical loads 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology

Conclusions With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future. However, problems will not be entirely resolved: PM remains serious (6 months life expectancy loss in 2020) Ozone: Failure to meet old WHO guideline value in some parts of Europe even in 2020 More serious impacts to be expected according to new WHO findings (even with conservative interpretation) Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3 Eutrophication remains unresolved