Consumptionbased accounting in climate negotiations

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Presentation transcript:

Consumptionbased accounting in climate negotiations Annela Anger-Kraavi Cambridge Econometrics Carbon-CAP Side Event UNFCCC SB42, Bonn, Germany Wednesday, 10 June 2015

ORNL CDIAK, 2011

assessment of the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of consumption-based climate-change-reduction policies (including related transformations in the international flows of trade, investments, technology transfer, and diffusion of innovation) assessment of the uncertainties related to different modelling methodologies

Interactive modelling (WP7) Consumption based emission reduction policies and measures (portfolio)/technologies/economic development/policies and politics/and so on >scenarios>model runs>outputs>…..

E3ME (Cambridge Econometrics, UK) macroeconometric energy-environment-economy (E3) model EXIOMOD (TNO, Netherlands) a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on detailed EXIOBASE MREEIO FIDELIO (IPTS, Spain) a dynamic econometric input-output model based on Eurostat's supply and use tables and the WIOD

Scenarios 2020- 2050: Reference scenario – IEA WEO 2014 current policies and IEA WEO 2014 + Paris COP21 pledges (INDCs) Policy scenarios - addressing indirect (supply chain) and indirect + direct emissions (end use related emissions) Outputs - changes in GDP, employment, trade, investment, recourse use, GHG and non-GHG emissions

Expected outcome: a policy portfolio of consumption based policies that shifts the burden back to developed countries and also results in reduction of production and consumption based emissions in developing countries Problems: no accounting standards, reporting and verification, current methods give a range of results (differences <30%)

Thank You! aak@camecon.com