Statistical Development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT (STA) The The IMF’s Support to Statistical Development in Africa Eighth Meeting of the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Session III – Making Partner Support More Effective and Efficient October 2, 2018 Claudia Dziobek Division Chief, Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department (STA) #6540246

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Global statistics capacity development (CD) agenda IMF capacity development in statistics Different delivery modes in statistics Results based management in statistics Statistical development in Africa Looking Forward “Data has gained prominence as a vital building block for making sound policy. Without reliable and timely economic data, we would be wandering in the dark, making decisions on the basis of anecdotes, gut feelings, or worse.” Managing Director Christine Lagarde 2014 IMF Statistical Forum FUND data for decisions

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Drivers of statistics CD Global statistics capacity development agenda STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Drivers of statistics CD Recognition of policy relevance of data 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development Global push for evidence-based policy-making New user demands, incl. outside governments IMF surveillance 230+ SDG indicators Data challenges for two-thirds of indicators Methodological advances and greater awareness of measurement challenges Digital economy “Data Revolution” Transparency and accountability Focus on dissemination Engagement beyond compilers Newly emerging Big Data CD GLOBAL Statistics Development of national statistical systems Data gaps and quality concerns revealed by crises (e.g., 2007/08) Compilation focus Compliance with international standards (e.g. SNA 2008, BPM6) Traditional

IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Capacity Development (CD) IMF capacity development in statistics IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STA’s Standard-Setting Role on Statistical Methodologies Underpins Its CD GFSM 2014 Screaming Chickens Guide Jumping Cows Remittances Compilation Guide BPM 6 Manual on Export & Import Prices Public Sector Debt Guide Monetary & Financial Others External Sector Government Finance Statistics Prices Quarterly National Accounts Manual CPI Manual PPI GDDS SDDS Plus FSI Compilatio Guide MFSM Handbook on Securities National Accounts (SNA 2008) Methodology Data & Surveillance Capacity Development (CD) Provide global leadership on macroeconomic and financial statistics to advance the international statistical agenda and contribute to carrying out the IMF’s mandate and core functions Gather and analyze statistics underpinning IMF surveillance and use of IMF resources; address data gaps and quality deficiencies; and promote best practices in dissemination of statistics Provide technical assistance and training to member countries, strengthening their capabilities to produce and disseminate consistent and comparable macroeconomic and financial statistics

Different delivery modes in statistics IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CD Final Outcome Technical Assistance (TA) Mission(s) Country-owned Work Plan Workshop The work plan for selected countries with CD needs includes: Baseline of existing practices; Decision on mode of CD delivery; Assessment of synergies with other IMF CD vehicles and other CD providers; Measures to address implementation risks; Endorsement by country authorities. Reform proposals to improve source data, methodology, compilation, and dissemination; Hands-on training, using authorities own data; Assessment of progress made vis-à-vis country log frame milestones. Diagnostic: Assessment of need and capacity of country authorities. Training: Rationale; Source data; Methodology; Compilation methods Peer learning: Exchange on best practices among countries with similar challenges. FUND data for decisions

Results based management in statistics IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STA CD Results Orientation: Accountability on Activities The RBM System provides: Greater clarity of purpose for CD activities Better tracking of progress toward results from CD Understanding of what has worked or not worked in the past Introducing more transparency and accountability on CD activities Promoting global best practices. RBM includes all IMF and partner-financed STA projects

IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT D4D’s Strategic Objective Results based management in statistics IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Strategic logframe The country logframe includes: Baselines developed from the country diagnostics Targeted outcomes of the CD activities, agreed with the country authorities Milestones to measure progress towards the outcomes D4D’s Strategic Objective Assist LLMICs in strengthening national statistical systems to cope with a challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to capacity development.   Impact outcome Indicators Data Source More and better data are available for decision-makers and analysts, with the ultimate objective of better informing economic policies and supporting monitoring of the SDGs. Improvements in indicators across all macroeconomic and financial statistical domains. Dissemination on National Summary Data Pages (NSDPs), IMF and/or World Bank databases, and/or country web sites; IMF’s Article IV and program reports; follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities. Objective Module 1: Policy-makers and the public have access to more and better data in three main statistical domains (real, external, and fiscal and debt statistics) to support policy analysis and formulation, detect economic risks and vulnerabilities, and enhance transparency and accountability. Real Sector Statistics: Objective 1: The residential property price index (RPPI) provides information about price trends in real estate which are important to assess risks in banks’ balance sheets, as evidenced in numerous cases of banking sectors crises after real estate bubbles burst. Strengthened compilation and dissemination of RPPIs, including by developing/improving the wider statistical infrastructure, source data, serviceability and metadata. At the end of the five-year D4D period: for the around one-tenth of eligible countries that already have a basic RPPI: Compilation and dissemination will be brought in line with guidelines and best practices outlined in the Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices; and staff capacity will be increased through CD on further improving source data, compilation methods, and dissemination; for the around one-eighth of eligible countries that are currently working on the compilation of a RPPI: Staff capacity will be increased through CD on further improving source data, compilation methods, and dissemination; for the around four-fifths of eligible countries where no RPPI is available but economic analysis requires better real estate price data: Regional workshops will provide training on data needs and methodology, complemented by follow-up TA missions if there is sufficient progress in basic data collection. Follow-up assessments through IMF CD activities. These may include assessments of capacity undertaken during bilateral TA missions or through the uses of workshop “before and after” quizzes/exams. Dissemination on NSDPs, IMF databases, and/or country web sites. Country logframe

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Delivery of capacity development in Africa by statistical topic, FY 2011-18 (in FTEs) 87% Technical Assistance 13% Training

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Partnership Regional Technical Assistance Center (RTAC) and Regional Training Centers (RTCs) South Sudan TTF FUND data for decisions Current beneficiary countries of statistics

Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Delivery of capacity development in Africa by funding, FY2011-18 (in FTEs) RTACs Coverage AFW AFC AFE AFS AW2 METAC Trust Funds

Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Relevance of Statistics CD: Impact on Analysis and Policy-Making GDP, 2013 estimates, $US billions - Effect of rebasing National Accounts Statistics Why Does Rebasing GDP Matter? Better perspective on the size and structure of the entire economy. Better handle on a country’s fiscal position, debt sustainability, tax potential, money demand. Key input in private sector decision making. Determinant of a country’s access to financial markets. Government Finance Statistics (GFS) East African Community GFS Institutional Coverage Before and After TA Budgetary CG Extrabudgetary CG Social Security Funds Local Government Baseline GFSM86 Current Status GFSM14 Broader institutional coverage allows to: Fully capture the role of the government and public sector in an economy. Assess a country's fiscal position and policy stance, and macroeconomic impact of the government's policies. Assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risk. Improve debt sustainability analysis. Foster government accountability and transparency. Enhance cross-country comparability.

IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Statistical development in Africa IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Testimonials from beneficiary country authorities “In the last five years, Zambia through the National Accounts unit of the Central Statistical Office has managed to benchmark the National Accounts Statistics and rebase GDP from 1994 to 2010. The Statistical office has also started producing quarterly GDP and has implemented most of the recommendations contained in the 2008 System of National Accounts. The National Accounts unit recently published the 2010 Supply and Use tables. These new developments and improvements in National Accounts compilation have been made possible with the much-cherished Technical assistance from the IMF AFRICTAC South office which the office has been receiving since 2011.” AFRITAC South RSS project “The outcome of the one week IMF TA mission was very rewarding as it assisted CBN in the - review of FSIs in accordance with FSIs Compilation Guide; construction of FSIs metadata; and dissemination of revised FSIs as well as the metadata on the IMF's website. More specifically, the mission streamlined our core set and expanded our encouraged set in line with available data; even as the framework for cross border consolidation was created. The TA also exposed a good number of STD staff and other relevant departments to FSIs computational basics.” IMF-DFID project on FSIs in Africa Goodson Sinyenga Head of the Economics and Financial Statistics, Central Statistical Office of Zambia Atoi Ngozi Victor Head of the Statistics Department Central Bank of Nigeria

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Statistical development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Preconditions for success: Country ownership. Structure capacity development to country needs, priorities and absorption capacity. Coordinate capacity development: E.g. Assistance with the development of source data needs to precede assistance in the compilation of statistics. Coordinate among capacity development providers E.g. Norway’s work in Malawi supporting the compilation of annual national accounts estimates based on the SUT framework and providing funds for the annual  surveys to ensure that relevant data sets were available for annual national accounts compilation.

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Looking Forward STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Introduction of the Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund and Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF) FUND data for decisions

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Looking Forward STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STA is rolling out multi-partner vehicles to sustain CD: FSSF & D4D Fund Data dissemination Targeted CD, for example: Regional harmonization Source data Other priorities Advanced economies Field-based Regional Technical Assistance Centers Provide CD on “bread-and-butter” statistics to establish strong methodological foundation. Aim to fill gaps in coverage Financial Sector Stability Fund FSSF (LLMICs) Financial Soundness Indicators Monetary and Financial Statistics International Investment Position Government Finance Statistics - Balance Sheets Bilateral & IMF’s own resources D4D Fund Real Sector Government Finance External Sector Financial Access Survey (FAS) Online learning Statistical Information Management Policy-relevant high-frequency data and source data Topical gaps and expanded regional coverage FUND data for decisions

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Looking Forward STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Data for Decisions Fund Overview (D4D) Objective: Putting more and better data in the hands of decision makers to enhance evidence-based macroeconomic policies and support achievement of the sustainable development goals. Focus: Strengthen national statistical systems to cope with a more challenging national and international policy environment, promote transparency and accountability, and offer efficient solutions to CD. Conceptual Foundation: Based on a needs assessment that considered: Demand from countries Policy relevance Identified data gaps and data quality concerns Complementarity of CD provided out of the IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Centers (RTACs) and bilateral CD projects The need for flexibility to react to a country’s capacity and readiness to accept CD FUND data for decisions Target countries: Mainly Low- and lower middle-income countries world-wide, including fragile states Duration: Five years (FY2019-24)

Looking Forward STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STA CD Under the D4D Fund: Focus on LLMICs and Fragile States Beneficiary Countries Low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICCs) LLMICCs and Fragile States

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Balance Sheet Approach Looking Forward STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IMF STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF) FSI Workstream Balance Sheet Approach Workstream Help countries assess financial sector structure, stability, and vulnerabilities, undertake stress testing, and develop macro- prudential policies. Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling and disseminating FSIs consistent with int’l standards. Publish FSIs in IMF’s FSI database (http//www.fsi.data.org) for use in SDG monitoring. Help countries develop and utilize a reporting framework to compile critical balance sheet data for the financial, external and government sectors to generate BSA matrices. Use matrices to identify cross- border and cross-sector financial linkages that could pose risks and vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling MFS, GFS, and ESS source data for use in BSA.

Statistical Development in Africa STATISTICS DEPARTMENT (STA) The IMF’s Support to Statistical Development in Africa Eighth Meeting of the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Session III – Making Partner Support More Effective and Efficient October 2, 2018 The Claudia Dziobek Division Chief, Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department (STA) #6540246