Meta-analytical probability modifying plot, illustrating the relationship between pretest probability of psychosis onset 38 months and post-test probability.

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Presentation transcript:

Meta-analytical probability modifying plot, illustrating the relationship between pretest probability of psychosis onset 38 months and post-test probability of psychosis risk at 38 months based on clinical high risk (CHR) psychometric assessment in patients seeking help at high-risk services, computed as the likelihood of a positive (above diagonal line in red; LR+) or negative (below diagonal line in green, LR−) CHR assessment result over the 0–1 range of pretest probability, adapted from.22 The vertical black line indicates the average pretest probability of psychosis onset in patients referred to high-risk services (15% at 38 months8) which yields a 26% post-test probability of psychosis onset in CHR+ cases and a 1.56% post-test probability of psychosis onset at 38 months in CHR− cases.22 LR, likelihood ratio. Meta-analytical probability modifying plot, illustrating the relationship between pretest probability of psychosis onset 38 months and post-test probability of psychosis risk at 38 months based on clinical high risk (CHR) psychometric assessment in patients seeking help at high-risk services, computed as the likelihood of a positive (above diagonal line in red; LR+) or negative (below diagonal line in green, LR−) CHR assessment result over the 0–1 range of pretest probability, adapted from.22 The vertical black line indicates the average pretest probability of psychosis onset in patients referred to high-risk services (15% at 38 months8) which yields a 26% post-test probability of psychosis onset in CHR+ cases and a 1.56% post-test probability of psychosis onset at 38 months in CHR− cases.22 LR, likelihood ratio. P Fusar-Poli, and F Schultze-Lutter Evid Based Mental Health 2016;19:10-15 Copyright © by the BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, Royal College of Psychiatrists & British Psychological Society. All rights reserved.