CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN EASTERN AFRICA; Its causes and relationship to ENSO By Z.K.K. Atheru AND C. Mutai Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN) April 30, 2019
VULNERABILITY OF THE GHA TO THE IMPACTS OFCLIMATE EXTREMES AND NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to many African countries and its Inter-annual variability has a major impact on national economies Weather and climate extremes such droughts and floods are quite common in eastern Africa Climate extremes such as the recent floods and the 1999/2001 droughts in the GHA, are often associated with food, energy and water shortages, loss of life and property among many other socio-economic disruptions. April 30, 2019
SOME EXAMPLES OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES . SOME EXAMPLES OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES April 30, 2019
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THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Eastern Africa exhibits a large variety of complex topographical features that play an important role in modulating the global climate e.g. contrasts in its surface terrain, a large inland moisture source in the Congo region, large inland lakes, and many other inland processes. April 30, 2019
CLIMATE MONITORING April 30, 2019
PROCESSES THAT INFLUENCE CLIMATE VARIABILITY OVER EASTERN AFRACA Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Intra-Seasonal Oscillations (MJO) Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) Tropical Cyclones Jet streams Sobtropical anticyclones SST anomalies over Atlantic and Indian Oceans Disturbances from the mid-latitudes ENSO Easterly waves Equatorial westerlies Meso-scale circulations Monsoon circulation April 30, 2019
NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING Climate monitoring and skilful seasonal climate prediction is crucial for proper planning and management of all climate sensitive activities including agriculture, water resources and hydroelectric power supply, among many others. Most Predictors for seasonal rainfall in the region are mainly based on SSTs and ENSO SST anomalies over Indian and Atlantic Oceans are however the main cause of climate variability in the region April 30, 2019
ROLE OF ATLANTIC AND INDIAN OCEAN April 30, 2019
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES April 30, 2019
LINKAGE WITH ENSO April 30, 2019
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LINK BETWEEN ENSO AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE GHA The Climate of the eastern Africa depict very strong seasonality. The climate anomalies that are associated with ENSO events are seasonal and location dependent. Warm/Cold ENSO events are often, but not always, associated with below/above average rainfall amounts over most parts of the eastern Africa during the major rainfall seasons. April 30, 2019
DMCN PRODUCTS DEKADAL PRODUCTS RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION. DROUGHT SEVERITY. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. GENERAL IMPACTS. WEATHER OUTLOOK MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRODUCTS CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARIES DROUGHT SEVERITY. DORMINANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. CLIMATE OUTLOOK. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THEIR IMPACTS. PRE - SEASON CONSENSUS OUTLOOKS. April 30, 2019
GHA CONSENSUS CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY 2002 April 30, 2019