LAMAS Working Group 7 – 8 December 2016 Agenda Item 4.4 Variance estimation in the LFS Riccardo.GATTO@ec.europa.eu Melina.ANTUOFERMO@ext.ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Reminder Variance of annual net changes and annual levels requested by DG EMPL 15 indicators by June 2017 23 indicators by June 2018 Definitions provided by mail to all countries Dissemination only on statistical significance (only Yes/No)

Transmission from MS Data transmission of PSU, STRATA, SSU and FSWEIGHT on-going 2015 data not yet received from 12 countries (AT, BE, DE, FI, HR, IE, IT, LU, NL, RO, SE and SK) Missing or not applicable values must be blanked MS who estimate variance by themselves should send these additional columns as well Do we ask to MS who estimate by themselves to transmit add columns : EU aggregate, to compare results, will be asked in future. 2015 missing countries to list

Results from MS consultation Eurostat will estimate the variance for 19 countries: BE, BG, CY, FI, GR, HR, IE, LT, LU, MT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SI, SK, UK, CH and MK 13 countries will estimate the variance by themselves: AT, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FR, HU, IT, LV, SE, IS and NO Position may change in future

Way forward SAS programs available soon Data transmission to continue Choice between 2 methods: Taylor linearisation / Bootstrap Extended to all DG EMPL indicators Detailed output (CVs, estimates, punctual variance, net change variance and significance) Data transmission to continue Template for net changes results available soon Results will be shared with MS before being sent to DG EMPL Eurostat will use in priority Taylor and if Taylor doesn't give results then Boostrap : Taylor is most robust Boostrap can be computationally intensive and the resulting variance estimates may be less stable than other methods such as the linearisation method. If the two are not appliacle the answer will be not. The net change can be long to estimate so data have to be send on time to allow us to fit the June deadline.

LAMAS is invited to: Continue data transmission of additional columns Report feedback on the SAS code Take note of the timeline Report their estimates on net changes (if concerned)