Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook Sept. 3, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.9 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,686 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,772 Imports 29 160 36 30 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,477 15,488 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,034 5,300 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,250 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,355 1,375 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,850 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,705 13,775 Ending Stocks 1,713 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 84.3 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,916 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 240 Imports 16 41 72 30 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,186 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,845 1,860 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 181 132 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,825 1,725 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,851 3,717 Ending Stocks 470 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.05 9.15 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Early Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Early Soy Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.68 3.42 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

Current Soybean Futures 8.25 8.22 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

2015/16 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Corn Costs Overall 75% increase 88% 26% 88% 46% Source: AgDM A1-21

Iowa Soybean Costs Overall 69% increase 88% 14% 56% 72% Source: AgDM A1-21

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Rain made grain Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (9/3/15) 2016/17 Corn $3.70 $3.65 $3.42 $3.68 Soybeans $10.05 $9.15 $8.25 $8.22

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/