Volume 141, Issue 4, Pages 1240-1248.e2 (October 2011) Changes in Serum Levels of HBV DNA and Alanine Aminotransferase Determine Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma  Chuen–Fei Chen, Wen–Chung Lee, Hwai–I. Yang, Hung–Chuen Chang, Chin–Lan Jen, Uchenna H. Iloeje, Jun Su, Chuhsing K. Hsiao, Li–Yu Wang, San–Lin You, Sheng–Nan Lu, Chien–Jen Chen  Gastroenterology  Volume 141, Issue 4, Pages 1240-1248.e2 (October 2011) DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2011.06.036 Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Flow of study participants. Gastroenterology 2011 141, 1240-1248.e2DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2011.06.036) Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Nine groups of long-term changes in serum HBV DNA levels over the 11-year follow-up. (A) The solid line represents actual median levels of long-term HBV DNA change over the 11-year follow-up (the lower limit was the 25th percentile of HBV DNA levels and the upper limit was the 75th percentile of HBV DNA levels), and the dashed line represents predicted levels of long-term HBV DNA change over the 11-year follow-up. All predicted levels of long-term HBV DNA change were generated using the group-based trajectory model; n indicates total number of participants. (B) The plots were generated using the group-based trajectory model. HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma. *The HCC incidence rate was calculated by the following formula: [(Number of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma Cases)/(Person-Year of Follow-up)] × 100,000. Gastroenterology 2011 141, 1240-1248.e2DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2011.06.036) Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma by (A) group of long-term HBV DNA change and (B) long-term pattern of ALT. Both P values for log-rank tests were <.001. aData were not available for 326 participants because of <2 measurements of ALT level. bALT level ≥45 U/L in ≥50% of sequential ALT measurements. cAt least one ALT level ≥45 U/L but <50% of sequential ALT measurements ≥45 U/L. dAll sequential ALT measurements <45 U/L and at least one ALT level >30 U/L. eAll sequential ALT measurements ≤30 U/L. Gastroenterology 2011 141, 1240-1248.e2DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2011.06.036) Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions