Making Money When the Going Gets Tough

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Presentation transcript:

Making Money When the Going Gets Tough

How Deep Is the River?

January Omens Worst first five trading days in history 1,395 new lows on NYSE (Jan. 20) SPX and many other indexes broke August lows “Best three months” a loss

Recession Watch Industrial production already below prior recession thresholds Jobless claims creeping up, recently just below 300,000 “red zone” Blowout in credit spreads

Distress for Junk Bonds Four-year high!

3 Key Mental Habits Safety first! Avoid complacency (bullish or bearish) Look for an edge

Play Defense Now Balanced portfolio (bonds vs. equities) Adequate cash reserve Trim vulnerable stocks and funds Emphasize dividend-rich names

Aggressive Asset Protection Put options Short sales Bear funds

Inverse ETFs ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SH) ProShares Short S&P Russell 2000 (NYSE: RWM) ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: EUM)

When to Hedge Wait for rebound to area of breakdown (SPX 1970-2020) VIX below 18 Divergence: SPX versus HYG or USO

Gold Expensive vs. Oil

Bear Beaters Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) Nestle (OTC: NSRGY)

Fat Dividends Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) MetLife (NYSE: MET)

Worth a Bite $205 billion of cash 11% free-cash-flow yield Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) $205 billion of cash 11% free-cash-flow yield A “Microsoft moment”?

Mutual Fund Gem Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index VHDYX or VYM (exchange-traded) Low expenses; 3.3% yield Outperformed 98% of peers (5 years)

Finally, Remember… “It always stops raining.” J.P. Morgan

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