Key Concepts Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G., Wilkinson, B., (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resource CD Rom, De Montfort University

What is Risk A judgement about a usually negative event or behaviour based on Likelihood (probability) Impact (the outcome) Key domains of risk in criminal justice terms Re-offending and reconviction Serious Harm to others Also the risk of harm to self Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

The Two Dimensions of Risk likelihood High likelihood/ High likelihood/ high low impact impact, eg shoplifting, low eg TWOC, burglary value property thefts Impact Low likelihood/ Low likelihood/ high low impact impact eg first time eg mass murder, public opportunistic theft massacre Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Structured Assessment A good risk assessment will help you to Make a prediction of risk along both dimensions Risk of re-offending Risk of harm (what and to whom) Key risk factors – risk reduction N.B. can also be used to evaluate effectiveness Kemshall et al 2011 Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Structured Assessment Actuarial Statistically based insurance approach Clinical Individually based Interviewing observation social history Professional judgement Both have limitations so a structured holistic assessment to build on the strengths of each and reduce bias Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Structured Assessment OASys and Asset Reducing bias Guiding the thinking of the assessor Focusing on most important risk factors Analysing and recording the evidence Consistency and comparability Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Main Indicators Past behaviour and convictions Motivation for and attitude towards offending Access and proximity to victims (including and grooming) Preparedness to use weapons Disinhibitors (alcohol and drugs) Situational triggers Conditions and circumstances Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Imminence – A Difficult Concept How soon is the offender likely to commit this act – some questions More likely to do it than not As soon as an opportunity or victim presents Actively grooming opportunity or victim Will act as soon as risk management plan breaks down Already failing to attend or comply Past circumstances and conditions are repeating Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Risk Management Reduction rather than Eradication Intervention programmes Changing thinking and behaviour Restrictive conditions Limiting opportunities – enforcement essential Monitoring and surveillance keeping a watchful eye Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Defensible Decisions Withstanding Hindsight Scrutiny All reasonable steps were taken in assessment and management Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Defensible Decisions Decisions grounded in the evidence Reliable risk assessment tools Collect verify and thoroughly evaluate information Record and account for decision making Communicate with relevant others seek information you do not have Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Defensible Decisions Stay within agency policies and procedures Match risk management interventions to risk factors Maintain contact with offender at a level commensurate with the level of risk of harm Respond to escalating risk, deteriorating behaviour and non-compliance Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Rights versus Risks Offender rights Protecting public and victims When there is a significant risk of harm protection should outweigh offender rights Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Diversity and Difference The individual offender The institutional and policy context The practitioner Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

Key Messages Likelihood and impact Assess risk of harm in all cases Ensure you have made a defensible decision and evidenced your actions Prioritise public and victim protection Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University