Re-designing Decision-Making Processes (Kennedy Cases) Prof. Morten Hansen MIIC, Nov. 12 2010

Three lessons GROUPTHINK CONFLICT LESSONS FOR THE GENERAL MANAGER Increasing cognitive conflict, decreasing affective conflict LESSONS FOR THE GENERAL MANAGER

SMOOTHING/AVOIDING BEHAVIOR = GROUPTHINK What is Groupthink? SMOOTHING/AVOIDING BEHAVIOR = GROUPTHINK “ ‘groupthink’ ... refer(s) to a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members’ striving for unanimity overrides their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action ... Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment that results from in-group pressures.” - Janis, Victims of Groupthink, p. 9

Symptoms of Groupthink Illusions of invulnerability Collective rationalization and discounting of warnings Unquestioned belief in the group’s inherent morality Stereotyped views of the enemy Direct pressure on any group member who argues against the group’s stereotypes, illusions, or proposals Self-censorship of disagreement with the group’s apparent consensus Shared illusions of unanimity Self-appointed mindguards who protect the group from adverse information that might shatter their complacency SOURCE: Janis,Victims of Groupthink

Results of Groupthink Discussions are limited to only a few alternative courses of action. The alternative preferred by the majority of members is not examined critically for nonobvious risks. Alternatives initially judged to be unsatisfactory are not reexamined for ways to make them acceptable. There is little attempt to obtain information from unbiased experts. Members process information selectively, favoring facts and opinion that support their initial preference. There is little discussion of likely resistance, setbacks, or difficulties with the preferred alternative, and no careful contingency plans. SOURCE: Janis,Victims of Groupthink

Key is to increase cognitive and decrease affective conflict Some techniques for increasing the “gap”: Establish and reinforce norms that make vigorous debates the rule rather than the exception Propose novel, unexpected questions that prompt debate without undermining any individual’s position Insist that debates be resolved by revisiting facts, assumptions, and pre-established decision criteria, not by power or the loudest voice Seek intermediate agreements about key elements of a problem along the way to a final decision Break up pre-established coalitions and assign tasks on other than traditional functional or divisional loyalties Choose words carefully to avoid inflammatory, offensive language

Creating Decision Making Processes: The General Manager’s Role GM’s Role Approaches to Managing the Process Factors Creating The Context Quality of Problem Solving Processes Quality of Outcomes Structure Membership Setting Leadership Experience Style Situational Factors Level of urgency Time available Roles Assigned Conflict Mgmt. Norms Openness to data Underlying agenda Power balancing Size of Group Means of dialogue Multiple alternatives Testing of assumptions Clear criteria Dissent & debate Perceived fairness Quality of decision Implementation effectiveness Timeliness

The General Manager’s Role: Specific Actions/Responsibilities Before/After Group Meetings: Choose the “means of dialogue” Select the team members Assess members’ capabilities (perhaps seek unbiased outside experts) Assign individual roles if necessary Determine the setting for group meetings Identify the level of urgency Influence and/or establish group norms Search for methods to encourage cognitive conflict as well as ways to mitigate affective conflict Ask the group to periodically analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the decision making process

The General Manager’s Role: Specific Actions/Responsibilities During Group Meetings: Define the agenda topics Clarify meeting objectives Question and test for understanding Manage time allocated to each topic “Call the question” - clarify when its time to finalize a decision Summarize discussions and the results of work sessions Identify next steps and accountabilities After reaching agreement, determine whether a “second chance” meeting may be necessary SOURCES: D. Nadler, “Managing the Team at the Top”; Janis, Victims of Groupthink

The Effective General Manager is… “shaping how the team works by managing its work process. In that manner, he is very directive and is pushing the team toward high performance, but he is doing that through management of the process, rather than taking a position on all of the elements of the team’s work.” SOURCE: D. Nadler, “Managing the Team at the Top”

Conclusion: debate and buy-in “I don’t care how smart you are….Success and failure depends on how well the staff and cabinet debate honestly and openly and then unite once you’ve made a decision.” Bill Clinton

Diversity in counsel, unity in command. - Cyrus the Great

Project Groups Agree on a method for generating cognitive conflict/debate in your group (while minimizing affective conflict) How will you surface assumptions you are making? Agree on a process for how to address issues of fair/equal contributions in your team. How/when discuss if an issue?