Fire Blow-Up Modeling: Implications for Situational Awareness & LCES

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Presentation transcript:

Fire Blow-Up Modeling: Implications for Situational Awareness & LCES Jo Ann Fites Adaptive Management Services Enterprise Team, USDA Forest Service

Overview Importance of fire accelerations in fatality fires Near misses? Modeling canyon blow-ups Test on Rattlesnake fatality fire What does this mean for situational awareness & LCES?

Fire Fatalities & Blow ups What is common to loop, rattlesnake, south canyon, Cramer and others? Numerous fire fatalities from blow-ups Especially in drainages or canyons or “chimney’s” Easily recognized but how fast can blow-ups occur? Does the speed sink in?

Modeling Canyon Blow-Ups Holding your finger near a match Existing models (e.g. Rothermel based, FARSITE) have average rates of spread Do not account for acceleration Do not account for convective entrainment Viegas canyon blow-up model Based on laboratory tests Mathematical landscape application Tested with rx burn in chaparral Viegas applied to several fatality fires in US Future: predicting when blow-ups occur?

Rattlesnake Fire - Test 1953 on Mendocino National Forest 15 fatalities Acceleration in small drainage a key factor “Sundowner winds a factor” Applied Viegas model

Applying Viegas Model Using ARC-GIS, existing tools Applying geometry

Viegas model simulation Assumptions: winds 3m/s, alpha=.000045

Model run with angles

Follow the leader or model? Model is useful but cannot substitute for the computer with slides in their head (if it will blow-up)

Applications What are the implications? LCES How much time do you have for egress? What are your triggers? Chuck Hartley when fire hits the bottom it is time to go..not wait and see what happens But this depends on the situation Applications

Codfish fire Crews going down into canyon or big box? Spacing of safety zones? Protection of structures at top?

Egress times for hotshots estimated at 45 minutes Distance out

Sz? 13 minutes 45 minutes Sz? 40 minutes

Operations 1) Where might it escape, size of WFSA -does the box need to be bigger? 2) overall hazard awareness for resources - improve situational awareness - not a substitute but some means of a “slide” for inexperienced crews 3) egress: - info to compare egress time estimates - setting triggers – go when it is at the bottom no matter what the size of fire 4) spacing of safety zones Have to rely 1st upon good, experienced leadership & what is going on at the fire (Codfish – Rax – “I told you it would not reach your sensors” --this tool is supplemental