2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Annie’s Project 10th Anniversary Meeting Ames, Iowa Sept. 18, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 155.3 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,843 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 661 Imports 8 28 29 162 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,931 14,530 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,546 4,475 5,100 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,665 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,395 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 735 1,225 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,270 12,675 Ending Stocks 1,855 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 41.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,149 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 40 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,224 3,289 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,690 1,655 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 95 115 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,315 1,370 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,140 Ending Stocks 150 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
Corn Crop Rating
Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Crop Rating
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Current Corn Futures 4.61 4.56 4.22 Source: CME Group, 9/17/2013
Current Soybean Futures 12.65 11.14 10.81 Source: CME Group, 9/17/2013
New Crop Prices
3 Month Outlook - Temps
3 Month Outlook - Precip
Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Can the new crop beat the summer heat? Then can it beat the freeze? New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt Corn demand rebounding? Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (9/18/13) Corn $6.90 $4.80 $4.22 Soybeans $14.40 $12.50 $12.65
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/