2018 Ag Update & How Tariffs Are Affecting the Ag Industry Sept. 13, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 181.3 3.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,827 241 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,002 -25 Imports 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,937 16,879 215 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,450 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,650 25 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,425 2,400 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,935 15,105 125 Ending Stocks 1,774 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.50 -0.10 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.1 52.8 1.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,693 107 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 395 -35 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,715 5,113 73 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,070 10 Seed & Residual 122 146 136 137 1 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,130 2,060 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,321 4,268 12 Ending Stocks 845 60 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.35 8.60 -0.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 6 6
USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 7 7
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 8 8
USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 9 9
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Advance Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Market Shares Advance sales for 2018 Sales for 2017 crop Source: USDA-FAS
Advance Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Ethanol Production Source: EIA
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
Current Corn Futures 3.92 3.58 Source: CME Group, 9/12/2018
Current Soybean Futures 8.86 8.35 Source: CME Group, 9/12/2018
2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
Source: USDA-FAS
Value of Ag Trade Source: USDA-FAS
U.S. Ag Exports Source: USDA-FAS
Arable Land
Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/