SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019 Benefiting society through user-inspired weather and climate research applications Lucky Ntsangwane 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019 Outline Introduction SAWS R&D Programme Critical Challenges Weather Forecasts Seasonal predictions Weather & climate research applications Summary 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019 Introduction Services Technological Science The reach: ~57 m people Embracing partnerships 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

SAWS Vision, Mission & Values “South African Weather-related Solutions for everyone, everyday” Mission “To provide weather, climate and related environmental (meteorological) solutions in support of improved safety and quality of life of people in South Africa” SAWS will realise this through: Thought leadership in meteorological, climatological and other related sciences; The development of relevant and innovative applications and products utilising cutting edge technology; and Establishing and leveraging collaborative partnerships. Core Values Integrity, Collaborative, Solution oriented science, and Passion for service excellence 2019/04/28

SAWS Strategic Programmes and Objectives The Strategic Framework put forward four programmes the organisation will base its work on. These programmes include the following:   Programme 1: Weather and Climate Services Programme 2: Research and Innovation Programme 3: Infrastructure and Information Systems Programme 4: Administration and Corporate Services 2019/04/28

SAWS’ Research & Development The most significant challenges and opportunities in each of the seven research themes SAWS’ response to the challenges & opportunities identified above Most important current activities New areas that deserve more attention in the next five years Observation research Weather research Climate change & climate variability Air quality research Applications research Market intelligence Disaster Risk Reduction Research Fig: Seven pillars underpinning the research programme SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

Critical Global Challenges Weather forecasts & seasonal predictions

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Weather Forecast for Gauteng Monday 18 Mar Tuesday 19 Mar Wednesday 20 Mar Thursday 21 Mar No rain No rain 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Weather Forecast for Gauteng Monday 18 Mar Tuesday 19 Mar Wednesday 20 Mar Thursday 21 Mar 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Weather Forecast for Gauteng Monday 18 Mar Tuesday 19 Mar Wednesday 20 Mar Thursday 21 Mar 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 Seasonal Prediction 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 Seasonal Prediction 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 Seasonal Prediction 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 2019 Symposium Focus Air Quality Monitoring and Research Activities GAW Monitoring and Research Marine related Research Activities and Applications Aviation related Research and Applications Disaster Risk Reduction through Impact-based 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Climate Change Research at SAWS Climate consists of the accumulation of weather events, meaning that climate change implies changes in weather on all time scales. Climate Change research can therefore not isolated from other research activities at SAWS: Observations Now-casting Weather forecasting Extended-range forecasting Seasonal predictions Decadal outlooks SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

SAWS Climate Change Reference Atlas Annual near-surface temperature change (°C) 2036 - 2065 2066 - 2095 RCP 8.5 (business as usual) RCP 4.5 Annual Rainfall change (mm) 2036 - 2065 2066 - 2095 RCP 8.5 (business as usual) RCP 4.5 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019

A future “view” on Climate Change

Adaptation route towards climate resilience History Adaptation target according to projections Risk Risk Risk Risk Reality Climate resilience Reality Reality Reality Observations Timeline 2018 2030 2050 2080 2100

A holistic “view” on Climate Change

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 Agrometeorology Purpose To support agricultural production and activities by providing meteorological services to the agricultural sector Research Focus Areas Operational Agrometeorology Development and implementation of agrometeorological products and services. Provide guidance to enhance agrometeorology research for operational applications in the agricultural sector. Agrometeorological modelling systems Application of crop simulation models for forecasting and yield prediction. Application of agrometeorological models for decision making. Micrometeorology Investigations of energy and water balances between the soil, plants and atmosphere interactions. Development and application of science and new technology to provide high quality observation data and products.  Remote Sensing and GIS applications in Agrometeorology Vegetation cover and water stress monitoring. Water use of different vegetation types Climate variability and climate change impacts on agriculture Impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture Investigate impacts of weather and climate extremes on agriculture SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019 Hydrometeorology Aim: provide water-sector-related products, services and solutions in support of improved quality of life of people in South Africa Key research activities: Drought monitoring & prediction Hydrological modelling and forecasting: Scenario – based analysis and forecasting (e.g. streamflow, runoff) Hydrological process Water accounting and socio – hydrology Hydrometeorology research: Influence of climate elasticity on water resources Weather/climate extremes and impacts on water resources The use of multi-sensor satellites and GIS in water management and planning practices. 2019/04/28 SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Observation Modelling Weather/climate-Energy Observation Modelling Full Radiation Current research:- Monitor SAWS solar radiometric network Develop products for the energy sector Conduct research on solar radiation validation and verification between Model (SSPS) and Observations Conduct research on solar radiation verification between Satellite and Observations Conduct Research on solar mapping and forecasting Conduct research that captures the ability of NWP model’s capability to forecast surface shortwave radiation and how different cloud regimes influence the accuracy of those predictions SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

Weather/climate-Health Current research:- Biometeorology Malaria prediction UV &Ozone Human biometeorology research UV monitoring since 1994 at six locations namely: Pretoria, Nelspruit, Cape Town, Cape Point, Durban and De Aar. Instrument used is UV-Biometer Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria cases of in Limpopo province, South Africa from January 1997 to December 2017. SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMBOSIUM-2019

SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019 Thank You SAWS-SERV-RES-WEATHERSMART-SYMPOSIUM-2019