Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re- presentation to the emergency department Gaye Moore, BN (Hons),

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Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re- presentation to the emergency department Gaye Moore, BN (Hons), PhD, Graham Hepworth, PhD, Tracey Weiland, PhD, Elizabeth Manias, PhD, Marie Frances Gerdtz, PhD, Margaret Kelaher, PhD, David Dunt, PhD Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal Volume 15, Issue 1, Pages 2-13 (February 2012) DOI: 10.1016/j.aenj.2011.12.004 Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Risk screening tool. Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal 2012 15, 2-13DOI: (10.1016/j.aenj.2011.12.004) Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Flowchart of screening process. Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal 2012 15, 2-13DOI: (10.1016/j.aenj.2011.12.004) Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Sensitivity and specificity with positive and negative likelihood ratios. Note: The scoring is not a diagnostic screening to identify the presence of a disease but the need for referral and risk of re-presentation. The negative predictive value (NPV) is important to consider as an increase in referral to services when not needed adds additional stress to a service system already challenged to meet the needs of this complex group. Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal 2012 15, 2-13DOI: (10.1016/j.aenj.2011.12.004) Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 ROC curve of re-presentation (within 28 days) to emergency department by homeless people predicted by risk screening tool. Area under the curve (ROC) 0.797 (CI, 0.735–0.859). Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal 2012 15, 2-13DOI: (10.1016/j.aenj.2011.12.004) Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd Terms and Conditions