Probability Models 7. SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies;

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
6.16 The student will compare and contrast dependent and independent events and determining probabilities for dependent and independent events.
Advertisements

Probability Middle School Content Shifts. Concerning probability, what have you usually taught or done? Share with an elbow partner. Read “6 – 8 Statistics.
AP STATISTICS.   Theoretical: true mathematical probability  Empirical: the relative frequency with which an event occurs in a given experiment  Subjective:
Theoretical Probability of Simple Events
An outcome is a possible result An event is a specific outcome Random means all outcomes are equally likely to occur or happen. random = fair A favorable.
Unit 1 We are developing an understanding that probability is a fraction of the outcomes in a sample space and that the probability of an event is always.
Unit 1 OUTCOMES AND LIKELIHOODS. Unit Essential Question: How do you determine, interpret, and apply principles of probability?
Find the probability and odds of simple events.
Warm-Up 4/30. Rigor: You will learn how to compute the theoretical and experimental probabilities and compute probabilities of compound events. Relevance:
UNIT 8: PROBABILITY 7 TH GRADE MATH MS. CARQUEVILLE.
Compound Events Defining Success In this lesson you will… find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.
Probability Distributions. Essential Question: What is a probability distribution and how is it displayed?
Level34567 Probability Skills I can use the probability words impossible, certain and even chance to describe the probability of an event occurring. I.
Chapter 2 - Probability 2.1 Probability Experiments.
Determining Probabilities Using Tree Diagrams and Tables.
Independent vs Dependent Compound Probability and Tree Diagrams.
Probability. probability The chance or likelihood that an event will occur. - It is always a number between zero and one. - It is stated as a fraction,
A ten-sided number cube with the numbers 1–10 on it is rolled. Find the probability of each event. Write each answer as a fraction. 1. P(3) 2. P(1 or 2)
Theoretical Probability. Turn to textbook page 239 to play Never a Six. (See handout for game board.)
CHAPTER 3 PROBABILITY 3.1 Basic Concepts of Probability.
PROBABILITY BINGO STAAR REVIEW I am based on uniform probability. I am what SHOULD happen in an experiment.
Unit 4: Probability Day 2: Basic Probability. Standards and Benchmarks Select and apply counting procedures, such as the multiplication and addition.
Probability “The Study of Chance.”. Probability P(Red ball) = 4 out of 7 = 4/7.
Probability of Simple Events
Probability. Contents 1. Introduction to probability terminology 2. Probability models to compare relative frequency of events with theoretical probability.
Course 2 Probability Basics 7.9 and Theoretical Probability Theoretical Probability is the ratio of the number of ways an event can occur to the.
 Page 568: Insurance Rates  Probability theory  Chance or likelihood of an event happening  Probability  Each even is assigned a number between.
PROBABILITY 4 corners review. A.One outcome or a collection of outcomes B. Based on relative frequency- what actually occurs during an experiment C. When.
2-6 Probability Theoretical & Experimental. Probability – how likely it is that something will happen – Has a range from 0 – 1 – 0 means it definitely.
Probability Project Complete assignment on next slide on notebook paper. You need to use the interactive coin and dice on Moodle to complete assignment.
Probability Experimental and Theoretical Probability.
Warm up 5-4: Does the triangle exist in Euclidean geometry, spherical geometry or neither.
Lesson Day 1 – Teacher Notes Standard: 7.SP.C.8a and b Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.
Billy makes and sells comic books. The comics costs $2 to make, and he sells them at a markup of 150%. Billy wants to get rid of his stock of comic books.
1. How many permutations are possible of the letters in the word secret? 2. Julie, Dan, Janet, Kevin, and Michael all enter a contest. Two names are pulled.
Introduction to Probability
Grab Your Learning Logs
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Sec. 4-5: Applying Ratios to Probability
Bell Work.
Probability of simple events
A ratio that measures the chance that an event will happen
Introduction to Probability
Warm-Up Monday 12/4 Define probability. Give an example of the probability of a simple event. A coin is tossed 20 times. It lands heads 4 times.
Probability.
Unit 6 Probability.
PB2 Multistage Events and Applications of Probability
2+6.1= 6.6−1.991= 0.7(5.416)= 8.92÷1.6= = Bell Work Cronnelly.
Chapter 3 Probability.
Register.
Likelihood, Theoretical, and Experimental
Warm-up March 5, 2018 Copy Agenda message – This is your homework! STUDY THIS TIME…… Warm-up Strong’s GMAS Review, Week 3, Problems ALL LATE WORK.
Write each fraction in simplest form
Bell Work Calculators okay to use but show your work!
Lesson Day 2 – Teacher Notes
Chapter 9 Probability.
Distance Time Graphs and Probability
Lesson Day 1 – Teacher Notes
Lesson Day 2 – Teacher Notes
Probability.
Objectives Find the theoretical probability of an event.
Lesson Day 1 – Teacher Notes
5-8 Probability and Chance
Please copy your homework into your assignment book
Rolling Into Probability
Experimental Probability
Statistics and Probability-Part 6
Probability of Compound Events
Please copy your homework into your assignment book
Warm Up Multiply. Write each fraction in simplest form.  
Presentation transcript:

Probability Models 7. SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. 7. SP.7a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events 7. SP.7b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Definitions Sample Space: set of all possible outcomes in an experiment Theoretical Probability: what you would EXPECT to happen in an experiment Experimental probability: the results of what ACTUALLY happened in the experiment Uniform Models: when each outcome is equally likely Non-Uniform Models: when each outcome is NOT equally likely

Uniform Models Uniform Models: when each outcome is equally likely. Which spinners have a uniform model?

Non-Uniform Models Non-Uniform Models: when each outcome is NOT equally likely. Which spinners have a non-uniform model?

Questions

Example: What is the sample space? Is this a uniform model or non-uniform model? Explain.

Example: What is the sample space? Is this a uniform model or non-uniform model? Explain.

Why are the outcomes NOT equally likely

Example: Using a MODEL for Experimental Probability

Practice: What is the sample space? Is this a uniform model or non-uniform model? Explain.

Practice: What is the sample space? Is this a uniform model or non-uniform model? Explain.

Probability Models-Activity 7. SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. 7. SP.7a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events 7. SP.7b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Compound Event 7. SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. 7. SP.8a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7. SP.8b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. 7. SP.8c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

Definitions Compound Events: more than 1 event Tree Diagram: A way to SHOW possible outcomes and sample space (like a table or chart)

Example:

Example: TREE DIAGRAM TABLE

Tree Diagram What is the sample space. How many outcomes are possible Tree Diagram What is the sample space? How many outcomes are possible? How many possibilities are there of rolling the same number on both number cubes?

Table What is the sample space. How many outcomes are possible Table What is the sample space? How many outcomes are possible? How many possibilities are there of rolling two even numbers?

Example 1:

Example 2:

More than 2 events:

EXIT TICKET on your own…

Compound Event- Independent Practice 7. SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. 7. SP.8a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. 7. SP.8b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. 7. SP.8c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.