“God hath numbered thy kingdom, and finished it.”* Faculty Fall Meeting Stark Campus Nov. 9, 2018 The Writing on the Wall “God hath numbered thy kingdom, and finished it.”* Implications for higher education, based on data presented in Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, by Nathan D. Grawe Rob Kairis Library Director Jayne Moneysmith Associate Prof., English *(Daniel 5:26, The King James Version).

Built on Assumptions… Future trends are based on what is happening in the world in recent years What if… We have another Great Recession. Politics shift and there is greater federal subsidy for higher education. https://timsterhowdarei.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/assume11.jpg?w=320&h=280 https://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/160422181648-tuition-coupon-780x439.jpg

Demographics … in a nutshell Birth Dearth: Since the Great Recession of 2008 birth rates are 12% lower with no rebound predicted. Fewer High School Graduates: The rates overall plummet by the end of the 2020s. Ohio: Is among the hardest hit states with forecasted rates declining by more than 15%. Ethnicity/Race: Although all subgroups have seen declining birth rates since 2008, the rates for Hispanic and Non-Hispanic black women are higher than non-Hispanic white women. Immigration: U.S. has average rate of immigration compared to other countries, but tends to draw immigrants from poorer, under-developed countries. Immigrants tend to settle in places prior immigrants settled (California, Florida, N.Y./N.J., Texas). Migration: For decades the general trend has been a Northeast to Southwest path. However, Ohio saw a slight increase of .25-.5% for 2010-2011.

Demographics … in a nutshell Income: There is a correlation between income and college attendance; children in families with an income above $100K are 50% more likely to attend. Parental Education: Children of parents with college degrees are much more likely to attend college. Since the 1950s the rate of educational attainment for parents has grown. Although a strong counterforce to declining birth rates, it is not enough to overcome the 12% decline in birth rate. Expected enrollments: In order to maintain expectations, each woman would need to have slightly more than 2 children, 1 to replace each parent and a little more to account for child mortality. Only 8 states meet this expectation. Timeline: Rates of college-going students hold steady during the early 2020s then after a short increase of 5%, the rate drops off by 15% or more. Type of Institution: 2-year schools are the hardest hit segment of higher ed, 4-year schools fare better, depending on the type of institution.

Demographics … in a nutshell The current national student-to-faculty ratio is: 18:1 (According to our website our campus ratio is 17:1) If we are to maintain that ratio and enrollment decreases as predicted, we could see a campus faculty 20-25% Smaller than it is today. The National Center for Education Statistics’ 2015 Digest of Education Statistics

2-year institutions can expect a greater loss. Our Identity? Are we a 2-year or a 4-year institution? If 2-year, are we reliant on first generation college students, whose numbers will be reduced. If 4-year, what type are we: Elite (top 50 schools) National (ranked 51-100) Regional (comprised of students who went to high school nearby). 4-year, regional institutions in the Midwest can expect a significant loss in demand for higher education, as much as 25%. 2-year institutions can expect a greater loss.

Our Identity Who/What will we be when the s*%^ hits the fan? What do we want our campus to be in 8-10 years (and beyond)? Do we maintain who we are and what we do and simply plan to better recruit. Do we downsize, continue to do what we do with lower enrollment. Do we fundamentally change what we do to grow or maintain in different ways. What else can we do. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_UXXtCpkeKiA/So0IurCQaeI/AAAAAAAAKxo/MIWPGp-EPRo/s1600/shitfan.jpg

What are we doing now That we should do better or not at all? Not a comprehensive list or SWOT analysis, but What strengths do we build on? What should we stop doing? Examples: College Credit Plus (a state mandate) Does this help or hurt us. Are we readying high school students for an out-of-state college experience. Will bringing them to campus increase enrollment. Start with us THERE Finish with us HERE https://www.guided-selling.org/wp-content/uploads/marketoonist-complacency.jpg

What are we doing now That we should do better or not at all? Not a comprehensive list or SWOT analysis, but What strengths do we build on? What should we stop doing? Examples: Global Education Is bringing a few dozen Chinese students to campus for the fall semester sustainable (worth the investment). Do we have the infrastructure to support international students (dorms). Do the politics (Kent) support this. https://www.guided-selling.org/wp-content/uploads/marketoonist-complacency.jpg

What are we NOT doing now that we should then? If the number of traditional college students will significantly decline, are there other populations we can draw from? Is there a “New Traditional” student (age 25+) to replace the “now” traditional student. If so, how do we get them to enroll. Should the campus invest in a curriculum designed for those already with a degree needing more career development. Should we create certificate programs. Other ideas that radically change the way we provide higher education. https://smallbiztrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/implementing-change-557x471.jpg

Group Discussions Paths Path 1: Campus Fundamentally the Same Size & Structure Recruit More Students Path 2: A Smaller Campus Downsize from 5,000 to 3-4,000 Path 3: Campus the Same Size, but Different Structure Programs, certificates, etc. Path 4: Other Possibilities? https://external-preview.redd.it/FPW8wf-mz-ZJoCCiRtab-9a6JTT-WWnTo8pzi5ZAJPQ.png?auto=webp&s=0f8fc18607332c36c8357efb05594837b2f082c5