Evaluating alternative anthrax production processes using a generic PSM: A worked example Yolanda Gil Jim Blythe Jihie Kim Surya Ramachandran USC/ISI

Overview Hypothesis: Problem-solving knowledge can be constructed by instantiating, assembling and modifying components called problem-solving methods that embody often-used abstractions of problem-solving knowledge Example: evaluating the wet and dry anthrax processes to determine which one Irak is more likely to follow. Use a domain-independent PSM for process evaluation with some specific knowledge about BW processes as the starting point.

Evaluate dry anthrax production Top-level evaluation: an agent will select the model that best matches its objectives and is feasible. Begin with steps in process model and “feasibility” evaluation in PSM.

Domain-independent plan evaluation knowledge in PSM (Blythe & Gil KAW 99) Estimate process feasibility requires Step Resource factor actor Have or can acquire needed resources material subtypes equipment produces ... Effect Linear Resource Estimate amount of linear resource required Estimate ease of acquiring resource Temporal Resource Is resource dual-use? Discrete Resource Estimate whether discrete resource required

Link process model information to the PSM Estimate process feasibility Have or can acquire needed resources factor ... requires Step Resource material actor equipment Process model Sprayer hard to acauire Safety level - air filtration - mask - vaccination Ferment Mill Dry Store Dispense Required for worker safety Spray Distill Air filtration equipment requires Vacuum Sprayer Dual-use

Linking process model information for matching objectives Estimate how process matches objectives produces Step Effect factor requires matches Check that end state matches goal Resource Goal ... Agent in environment produces effect Ferment Mill Dry Store Dispense Spray Distill Vacuum

Apply problem-solving knowledge to the wet and dry anthrax models Wet-anthrax model requires the following equipment: Environmental storage unit (dual use) Aerosol dispersion system (dual use) Dry-anthrax model requires the following equipment: Air filtration system (dual use) Spray dryer Personnel trained in operating spray dryer Dry-anthrax model requires more specialized equipment, but Irak would prefer it since it is feasible and better matches the goal of battlefield dispersion.