Maritime security aspects in Black and Azov seas region

Russian activities in Black Sea region – tool to influence 2 Russian activities in Black Sea region – tool to influence on Mediterranean and Middle East areas MOSCOW BRUSSELS RUSSIA BLACK SEA MEDITERRANEAN SEA NATO/EU UKRAINE UKRAINE RUSSIA NATO/EU GEORGIA MOLDOVA AZERBAIJAN ARMENIA SYRIA LIBIA Азовське море Black sea Умовні позначення: Mediterranean sea RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES RUSSIAN NAVAL BASES

Russian activities to dominate in Black and Azov seas Desired end state – full dominance in region Current Russian objectives in Black and Azov seas area 1) Legalization of status of territorial sea around occupied Crimea 2) Pressure on Ukrainian maritime industry. Closing sea of Azov for navigation to Ukrainian ports. Cutting off Ukraine sea access 3) Military dominance to project power 4) Discretization of Ukrainian Power ability to defend country

Kalibr missiles impact Back-of-the-envelope estimated reach of a SS-N-30A Nuclear-armed Kalibr, assuming a 1650 km actual operational range, launched from about 60 km south of Crimea’s Western Tip, or 100 km west of Sevastopol, well within Russian-controlled waters. (Depth here is about 400 meters.) “Optimistic” range for a SS-N-30A Nuclear-armed Kalibr cruise missile at estimated maximum range of 2,500 km, launched from the edges of the Black Sea. Taken from the Russian Topwar.ru website

RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN SEA OF AZOV Average waiting time at Kerch straight 79 hours 9 hours

RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN SEA OF AZOV

UKRAINAN ACTIVITIES TO DEFEND SOVEREIGNTY AT SEA OF AZOV Creation of Naval base in Berdyansk Deployment of Ukrainian Navy Marines and vessels to Sea of Azov Exercise freedom of navigation through Kerch straight Composition of Ukrainian Navy detachment to move to Berdyansk port on 22-26 November 2018 Artillery boat “Nikopol” tug “Yani Kapu” Artillery boat “Berdyansk”

Result of armed attack against Ukrainian Navy vessels by Russian Federation 25.11.2018 Ukrainian Navy personnel which suffered injures Andrii ARTEMENKO Vasyl SOROKA Adrii EIDER Actions of Ukrainian Navy personnel were legal in accordance with United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982, Agreement between Ukraine and Russia about cooperation in use of Sea of Azov and Kerch straight from 2003, and common maritime practice of safety navigation at sea

U K R A I N V Y S T R A E G Y 2 3 5 Coastal Littoral Blue waters E N D - W A Y M Mission: To deter aggression, to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and to ensure maritime security, economic prosperity, and international peace, in cooperation with national defense / security forces and strategic partners, at and from the sea. Vision 2035: Modern, agile & innovative NAVY capable to protect people of Ukraine & national interests in maritime & coastal domain conducting asymmetric & decisive operations, with highly motivated & professional personnel, dedicated to win. U K R A I N V Y S T R A E G Y 2 3 5 Coastal Littoral Blue waters 2017 2025 2030 2035 Protect sovereignty and integrity Deter aggression Enhance security, prosperity and peace Territorial waters < 12 nm EEZ< 200 nm Beyond Black Sea 70-90 mln. USD/year 100-250 mln. USD (TBD)/year 150-400 mln. USD (TBD)/year

Capability Matrix (Ends – WAYS – Means) U K R A I N V Y S T R A E G Y 2 3 5 NATO AJP-3.1 was selected as primary publication for Ukrainian Navy roles and methods

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