The Southeast Pacific Climate Cold SSTs, coastal upwelling Cloud-topped ABLs Influenced by and influential on remote climates (ENSO) Unresolved issues in heat and nutrient budgets Important links between clouds and aerosol Poorly simulated by atmosphere-ocean GCMs

Clouds in climate models - change in low cloud amount for 2CO2 GFDL Clouds in climate models - change in low cloud amount for 2CO2 CCM model number from Stephens (2005)

Clouds in Global Models Annual mean Control run Atmospheric models ERBE NCAR GFDL GMAO -SWCF (W m-2) Clouds in Global Models Annual mean Control run Atmospheric models

CGCM Problems: NOAA CFS Model CFS Errors The CFS model has significant errors in the SEP There is a meridional shift in ITCZ (top), a warm SST bias (middle) and insufficient stratocumulus cloud cover, (bottom) These errors adversely affect the skill of CFS climate forecasts (ENSO). What model developments are required to alleviate these errors? Prec SST CLD

resolution of ~5m required to resolve inversion! Why this Uncertainty? resolution of ~5m required to resolve inversion! Free-tropospheric T set by ITCZ ~12K! θe 2,000km Talk about entrainment! ~1km BL T set by local SST

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation

The effect of low clouds on climate SST Stratus Cloud Amount (Warren) Net CRF

Drizzle is important over the SEP

Global cloud droplet concentration (MODIS, annual mean 2001-2004)

Cloud Microphysical Variability Smelter locations MODIS Cloud Droplet Concentration (SON 2001-2004)

Pockets of Open Cells (POCs) 200 km Pockets of Open Cells (POCs)

POC formation

The POC “breeding grounds”