Trends and Projections Inmate Population Trends and Projections for Platte County Missouri Bill Garnos December 2018 Jail Consultant

Purpose Objective and independent assessment. Justification. Transparency. Documentation. Provide a BASELINE for current facility planning. Provide a BASELINE for master planning and criminal justice system planning. Provide a DATA-DRIVEN means for public education, community support, and citizen engagement.

Report Organization Review of Past Jail Studies Criminal Justice Statistical Indicators Inmate Population Trends Inmate Population Projections Conclusion

Review of Past Jail Studies

Past Jail Studies

Past Jail Studies Evaluating Future Inmate Housing Needs by Capt. Randall Pittman, Platte Co. Sheriff’s Office, 2012 ADP will reach operational capacity by 2014, and rated capacity by 2017. Recommended construction of “Futures” area for inmate housing.

Past Jail Studies Feasibility Study / County Law Enforcement, Jail and Judicial Expansion by Goldberg Group Architects (GGA), and Weber & Associates, 2014

2014 GGA Study I. Project Overview II. Assessment of Existing Jail Facility III. Feasibility Analysis of Jail Expansion Options IV. Staffing Plan for the Initial Startup and Operation of an Expanded Platte County Adult Detention Center V. Exhibits (Photos)

2014 GGA Study Platte County needs to expand their jail to accommodate the volume of prisoners that it currently processes and to provide adequate housing for the future growth of its daily inmate population. The current jail is reaching and exceeding capacity and will soon reach the point where it can no longer accommodate the volume of arrestees presented for incarceration without exceeding its rated capacity.

2014 GGA Study Two different versions of Population Growth Rate for Platte County. Three different versions of Need for a Facility, with three different inmate population forecasts. Revised 07/10/13.

2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #1 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 288 inmates in 2032, requiring a jail capacity for 339. Platte County’s projected population growth and its impact on the jail population indicates a need for a 300 – 350 bed jail to accommodate the county’s need for jail space over the next 20 years ... .”

2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #2 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 429 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 505. [I]t is recommended that Platte County consider a jail facility that can accommodate 450 – 500 inmates.” GGA Forecast #3 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 542 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 637.

2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #3 Need 637 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #2 20 Years 2033 294 – 542 Inmates 15 Years 2028 265 – 385 Inmates Ten Years 2023 239 – 273 Inmates Five Years 2018 173 – 194 Inmates ADP

Past Jail Studies Report to the Platte County Commission by the Platte County Jail Committee, 2014

Past Jail Studies 1) There is no current need to justify the construction of new jail buildings or expanded facilities for housing inmates.   2) The Commission should engage the architects who designed the current facility as an independent expert.  3) There should be no discussion with KCMO regarding a long term contract. The Prosecutor offices will require attention. 5) The County should incur no new debt for expanding Futures or for construction and remodeling of administrative offices. 6) The initial expert reports on the jail expansion and county population projections should be discarded.

Criminal Justice Statistical Indicators Crime Arrests Criminal Case Filings Other Statistical Indicators

Criminal Case Filings in Circuit Court in Platte County Felonies Associate Felonies Misdemeanors

Inmate Population Trends Bookings Average Daily Population (ADP) High / Low Population Inmate Population by Gender

Average Daily Population (ADP) Daily Counts ranged from 175 to 215 Inmates. Average Daily Population (ADP) was 193 Inmates.

Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

State Inmates — Bookings Highest Month: 416 State Inmate Bookings 2013 – 2018 Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Lowest Month: 223 State Inmate Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 350 state inmate bookings per month.

State Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 181 State Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. Lowest ADP: 69 State Inmates

Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

ICE Detainees — Bookings Highest Month: 112 ICE Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 18 ICE bookings per month. 2013 – 2018 Trend Lowest Months: O ICE Bookings 2009 – 2018 Trend

ICE Detainees — ADP Highest ADP: 23 ICE Detainees Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 18 ICE Detainees. Lowest ADP: O ICE Detainees

ICE Detainees — Revenue ICE Detainees — ALOS ICE Detainees — Revenue

Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

Total Inmates — Bookings Highest Month: 429 Total Bookings 2013 – 2018 Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 368 total bookings per month. Lowest Month: 225 Total Bookings

Total Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 194 Total Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 184 Total Inmates. Lowest ADP: 70 Total Inmates

Total Inmates — ADP

ADP by Gender Male Inmates Female Inmates

Average Daily Population by Gender Since 2015, the Detention Center has averaged 81% male inmates and 19% female inmates. 2008 – 2018 Trend Female Inmates Male Inmates

Average Daily Population Male Inmates 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 159 Male Inmates 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 151 Male Inmates. Lowest ADP: 61 Male Inmates

Average Daily Population Female Inmates Highest ADP: 46 Female Inmates 5-Year Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 33 Female Inmates. Lowest ADP: 10 Female Inmates

High / Low Inmate Population

High / Low Inmate Population Range Highest Population: 216 Total Inmates High Trend Low Trend The Detention Center’s high (peak) population averages 11% over the ADP each month. Lowest Population: 56 Total Inmates

High / Low Inmate Population Range 180 Beds 154 Beds

Inmate Population Projections County Population Inmate Population Projections Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements

Platte County Population Current population was estimated at 101,187 in 2017. Current MARC Projections Historical Census Population

Inmate Population Projections Not an exact science. No commonly accepted methodology for conducting inmate population projections. Projections degrade over time. The further out the projections are made, the less reliable they become.   Long range projections should be used for long-term master planning and site planning.

Inmate Population Projections Inmate projections are different than jail capacity requirements. Actual inmate population fluctuates (zigzags) above and below the trendline.   Projections are primarily based on historical trends. Inmate population projections are for facility planning purposes.

Inmate Population Projections Linear ADP Trends — Projections based on trendlines through the County’s ADP of state inmates. Rate of Incarceration (ROI) — Projections based on the correlation between the number of state inmates and the County’s population, applied to the County’s population projections. Average Length of Stay (ALOS) — Projections based on the ALOS for state inmates, applied to the projected number of bookings for state inmates.

Inmate Population Projections Linear ADP Trend Projections Model 1A. 2008 – 2018 ADP Trend Projections Model 1B. 5-Year ADP Trend Projections Rate of Incarceration (ROI) Projections Model 2A. 10-Year Average ROI Projections Model 2B. 5-Year Average ROI Projections Model 2C. ROI Trend Projections Average Length of Stay (ALOS) Projections Model 3A. 10-Year ALOS Projections Model 3B. 5-Year ALOS Projections Model 3C. ALOS Trend Projections

Inmate Population Projection Models Models 1B, 2C & 3C Model 1A Models 2A, 2B, 3A & 3B Actual ADP

Inmate Population Projections Reasons for selecting Model 1A to use as the baseline, for facility planning purposes: Represents the approximate midpoint in the range of results from the eight forecasting models. Two other key models (Models 2C and 3C) reached similar results. The results from four models (Models 2A, 2B, 3A, and 3B) are unreasonably low, given other indicators and growth trends. The highest results (Model 1B) were rejected as a baseline for planning purposes, but reflect the steep increase in the inmate population over the past five years. Model 1A is based simply on the continuation of Platte County’s own actual state inmate population trend since 2008.

Baseline Inmate Population Projections Ten Years 2028 ADP 241 State Inmates Five Years 2023 ADP 202 State Inmates Actual ADP

Rate of Incarceration (ROI)

Rate of Incarceration (ROI) State Inmates per 1,000 County Population

Average Length of Stay (ALOS)

Average Length of Stay (ALOS) Days

Inmate Population Projections Baseline ADP projections: 202 state inmates in five years (by 2023); 241 state inmates in ten years (by 2028); 280 state inmates in 15 years (by 2033); and 319 state inmates in 20 years (by 2038).

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Total Jail Beds Needed “Capacity” of the Existing Jail Inmate Housing Shortfall

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Peaking Factor — To accommodate routine fluctuations in the inmate population. Since 2008, the highest (peak) inmate population each month exceeded the ADP for that month by an average of 11 percent. Classification Factor — To allow for the separation of males and females, to separate inmates by security classification, and to allow for administrative and disciplinary segregation.

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Baseline ADP Projections Total Jail Beds Needed Peaking Factor Classification Factor + + = “85 Percent Rule” ADP = 85% of Total Beds Needed

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Inmates Beds

“Capacity” of the Existing Jail

Inmate Housing Shortfall Beds Shortfall

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Inmates Beds Shortfall

Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Type of Jail Beds Needed More high-risk offenders, with greater security requirements; More inmates with long lengths of stay; More inmates with medical and mental health issues; More inmates with special needs, or who require special management; and Growing need to keep certain inmates (or groups of inmates) separate.

Conclusion

Conclusion The population of Platte County is growing rapidly. Over the 20 years from the 1990 to the 2010 Census, the population of Platte County increased by 54 percent. Current population is estimated at 101,000 people. Over the next two decades (from 2020 to 2040), the population of Platte County is expected to grow another 30 percent, to over 137,000 residents. As the County’s population grows, the demands on its criminal justice system — and its jail system — also grow.

Conclusion Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. The Detention Center has also been holding an ADP of 18 ICE detainees, which provide revenue for the County. This year, the Detention Center hit its highest monthly ADP, with 194 total inmates in June, and 193 total inmates in August and September. The Detention Center’s highest one-day inmate population was 216 inmates, which it hit in May 2017.

Conclusion It is estimated that Platte County will need a total of: Five Years (2023) — 237 jail beds, to support an ADP of 202 state inmates; Ten Years (2028) — 283 jail beds, to support an ADP of 241 state inmates; 15 Years (2033) — 330 jail beds, to support an ADP of 280 state inmates; and 20 Years (2038) — 376 jail beds, to support an ADP of 319 state inmates.

Conclusion Subtracting 151 beds in the existing jail from the total number of jail beds needed, it is estimated that Platte County will have an inmate housing “shortfall” of: 86 jail beds in five years (2023); 132 jail beds in ten years (2028); 179 jail beds in 15 years (2033); and 225 jail beds in 20 years (2038).

Conclusion Platte County is currently in the process of making some important, multi-million dollar, facility planning decisions. The goal of this study was to establish some reasonable jail capacity estimates for facility planning purposes. Ultimately, the County will need to decide how large any jail expansion or new jail facility should be — given all the historical data, emerging issues, and current projections. Hopefully, the graphs, data, trend analysis, and other information in this report will aid the County in its efforts to address the County’s growing jail population, and the appropriate size for any jail expansion or new jail facility.

Trends and Projections Inmate Population Trends and Projections for Platte County Missouri