Current State of the Sector

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Presentation transcript:

Current State of the Sector Mark Parkinson, AHCA President and CEO

Sector Background

The Numbers Supply of Investment-Grade* Seniors Housing and Care Properties in the U.S. (as of Q4 2013**) ***One nursing bed is equivalent to one unit. Source: NIC Research

How We’re Doing

Short-Stay vs. Long-Stay

Key Factors: How People are Doing State in which they operate Payor mix Debt structure

Opportunities

Aging Population

Challenges

Federal Government is Broke

Risks That We Face Have Changed 2010 The Hill CMS Changing Payment Models 2016

Changing Payment Models

Population Growth – 80-84 Years

More People Will Need Our Post-Acute Services Source: SNF Volume from Avalere projection model; Medicare enrollment from 2015 Trustees’ Report

Some Providers Will Win

What CMS Wants

CMS Support of Health Care Delivery System Reform will Result in Better Care, Smarter Spending, and Healthier People Key characteristics Producer-centered Incentives for volume Unsustainable Fragmented Care Systems and Policies Fee-For-Service Payment Systems Key characteristics Patient-centered Incentives for outcomes Sustainable Coordinated care Systems and Policies Value-based purchasing Accountable Care Organizations Episode-based payments Medical Homes Quality/cost transparency

During January 2015, HHS Announced Goals for Value-Based Payments Within the Medicare FFS System

Implications of Changing Payment Models to Law Incentive for therapy is eradicated Pressure on length of stay New theories of liability

2016 Election

2016 Election House – Unlikely to change Senate – In Play 246 Republicans 188 Democrats Senate – In Play Republicans defending 24 seats Democrats defending 10 seats Presidency – In Play

Likely Result Senate will go to whoever wins the presidency

All Republican Line-Up Medicaid at risk Reduction of provider tax Block grant proposal Per capita cap Other supplemental payments

All Democrat Line-Up Congressional gridlock continues CMS still very active

Tort Liability

2015 Aon Report: Key Findings

2015 Aon Report: State by State