Working with D-Flow Flexible Mesh in the San Francisco Estuary Gerben de Boer, Arthur van Dam, Ali Dastgheib, Edwin Elias, Bruce Jaffe, Bert Jagers, Noah Knowles, Herman Kernkamp, Hans Los, Lisa Lucas, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen and others

California California Sacramento San Francisco 500 km Los Angeles Courtesy J. Cloern

Delta Sierra Nevada Sacramento R. San Joaquin R. San Francisco Bay Pacific Ocean 2 Courtesy J. Cloern

Sacramento river Bay San Joaquin

Characteristic river discharge

Water export

San Francisco Estuary in the 1980s San Pablo Bay Suisun Bay Area: ~1200 km2 Average depth: 7 m Median depth: 3 - 4 m Deepest point: ~120 m (Golden Gate) Central Bay Point out color scheme Point out 10 km scale bar Point out sub-embayment names 1980s is the most recent complete bay bathymetry data set Average depth increased by deep Central Bay South Bay Jaffe 2009

San Pablo Bay

Cascade project 1.3 M USD Financed by USGS and DWR California Scientific approach to study climate change impact on water quality dynamics Central place for D-Flow Flexible Mesh

Flexibility: Orthogonal curvilinear grids + triangles + pentagons+… October 12, 2010

Flexibility: Orthogonal curvilinear grids + triangles + pentagons+… October 12, 2010

High Qr

High Qr Low Qr Pumping No pumping

Calibration periods Dec 16 1999 - Mar 16 2000 (high Q) Jul 16 2001 – Oct 16 2001 (low Q) Water level plots at GGT

WL Amplitudes North bay up to Sacramento South bay

Phases North bay up to Sacramento South bay

A region B region F region D region C region E region

Water level amplitudes Delta measurement model landward

Modeling Scenarios CasCade 2 Impact of Changing river flow (100 years) Sea level rise (100 years) Anthropogenic acts (10 years) on SSC and morphodynamics Selenium contamination Valve distribution and contamination Phytoplankton growth

California water system moves water north to south 34 34

Restrict Southerly Flows Biological Opinions Restrict Southerly Flows Sacramento The flows from the rivers and tributaries flowing east to west is continually being pushed back and forth tidally (east & west), which provides varying salinity throughout the Delta. The recent biological opinions have significantly restricted water supply flows southerly. Stockton SWP Pumps CVP Pumps 35 35

System Vulnerabilities Fishery Declines Delta smelt Subsidence Catastropic Event Acute Occurence Climate Change

Land Subsidence Due to Farming & Peat Soil Oxidation - 7.6 M (- 25 ft.) -6.1 M (- 20 ft.) - 4.6 M (- 15 ft.) -1.5 M (- 5 ft.) Below Sea Level -8 -6 -3 -1 m

Bay Delta Conservation Plan Conveyance options Sacramento Sac River BDCP is looking at four basic ways of moving water supplies around, under or through the Delta to avoid the conflicts with fish. Through Delta Conveyance Dual Conveyance – East Alignment Dual Conveyance – West Alignment Dual Conveyance – Central Tunnel Alignment There are two peripheral canals under investigation, the traditional route along the eastern Delta and an alternate to the west. There is also serious consideration of a tunnel from the northern Delta to the existing water projects to the south. Construction costs may be higher but may prove more benign from an environmental perspective given its lessened footprint. There is also a look at how to continue to move water through the Delta. BDCP will have to exhaustively look at a variety of alternatives to meet legal requirements for a thorough environmental review. Stockton SWP Pumps SJ River CVP Pumps 38

BDCP New Delta Conveyance Cost Analysis Bay-Delta Conservation Plan BDCP New Delta Conveyance Cost Analysis East Canal ~ $8 billion * West Canal ~ $9 - 11 billion * All Tunnel ~ $10 -12 billion * Preliminary Subject to Revision Thanx to Peter Wijsman (Arcadis) for slides

Fin