Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Economy/Outlook Sept. 24, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Economic Summary Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

Economic Summary Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

Reversal of Fortunes Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

Concerns on Repayment Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

Debt and Rates Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

Modest Adjustment in Land Values Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 181.3 3.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,827 241 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,002 -25 Imports 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,937 16,879 215 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,450 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,650 25 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,425 2,400 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,935 15,105 125 Ending Stocks 1,774 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.50 -0.10 Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.1 52.8 1.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,693 107 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 395 -35 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,715 5,113 73 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,070 10 Seed & Residual 122 146 136 137 1 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,130 2,060 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,321 4,268 12 Ending Stocks 845 60 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.35 8.60 -0.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 55.0 50.1 46.0 47.8 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 43.6 52.7 46.3 47.4 Production (mil. bu.) 2,062 2,309 1,741 1,877 Beg. Stocks 752 976 1,181 1,100 Imports 113 118 157 135 Total Supply 2,927 3,402 3,079 3,112 Food 957 949 964 970 Seed 67 61 64 62 Feed & Residual 149 161 48 120 Exports 778 1,051 901 1.025 Total Use 1,951 2,222 1,978 2,177 Ending Stocks 935 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.89 3.89 4.72 5.10 0.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

Current Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

Current Cattle Futures Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

Current Hog Futures Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/