2002-03 Hog Market Situation and Outlook Presented by John D. Lawrence and Gary May Iowa State University

Current Events Russian Poultry Ban Japanese Pork Safeguard Tariff Biggest August slaughter in history Supplies larger than expected. Why? Plant capacity and Hormel announcement Country of Origin Labeling

Meat Supply Year-To-Date Sept 27, 2002 Red meat production +3.4% Beef +3.7% Pork +3.2% Poultry production +1.0%

Meat Demand Domestic demand steady-strong Export demand Jan-July Beef +11.0% Pork -1.0% Broilers -16.3% Russian poultry ban In 2001 broiler exports to Russia equaled total US beef exports

Sept. 1 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Mil Hd % Chg All Hogs 60.22 +1.2 Breeding Herd 6.05 -1.7 Market Hogs 54.17 +1.0 Under 60 19.68 -1.1 60-119 13.41 -0.2 120-179 11.15 +2.7 180 + 9.93 +5.4

Sept. 1 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Mil Hd % Chg Pig Crop     Mar-May 25.85 1.3 Jun-Aug 25.13 -1.6 Farrowing Intentions   Sep-Nov 2.82 -2.5 Dec-Feb 2.81 -1.1

Up 16.5% June-August

Production and Price Forecast Quarter Pork Supply Price Forecast 1 in 6 Price Oct-Dec 4% $27-30 $24.25 Jan-Mar -1% $35-38 $30.00 Apr-Jun $37-40 $31.50 Jul-Sep $42-45 $34.75

Factors to Watch Weekly slaughter Does the report track? Plant capacity Marketing weights Sow slaughter Feed costs

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