A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200 A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit will be ruined if it rains. On the other hand, if it does not rain, carrying the umbrella is an unnecessary inconvenience. 1. Draw an influence diagram of this situation 2. Draw a decision tree of this situation 3. Before deciding, the decision maker considers listening to the weather forecast on the radio. Draw a decision tree that takes into account the weather forecast

a. Influence Diagram Alternatives Take Don’t Take Outcomes Rain No Rain Weather Take Umbrella? Protect Suit Convenience Overall Satisfaction Choices Outcomes Consequences Take Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience No Rain Don’t Take Suit Ruined, Convenience Suit Protected, Convenience a. Influence Diagram

b. Decision Tree Take Umbrella Suit Protected, Inconvenience Rain Suit Ruined, Convenience Don’t Take No Rain Suit Protected, Convenience b. Decision Tree

c. Decision Tree Take Umbrella Suit Protected, Inconvenience Rain Suit Ruined, Convenience “Will Rain” Don’t Take No Rain Suit Protected, Convenience Forecast Take Umbrella Suit Protected, Inconvenience “Will Not Rain” Rain Suit Ruined, Convenience Don’t Take No Rain Suit Protected, Convenience c. Decision Tree