Crop Pressures ISU ANR Extension Conference Ames, Iowa Mar. 23, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use Feed Fuel Food 2007 2008 2009 2010 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 Beg. Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 Imports 20 14 8 Total Supply 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,175 Feed & Residual 5,913 5,182 5,140 5,200 Ethanol 3,049 3,709 4,568 4,950 Food, Seed, & Other 1,338 1,316 1,371 1,400 Exports 2,437 1,849 1,987 1,950 Total Use 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,500 Ending Stocks 675 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.55 5.40 Supply Feed Fuel Food Demand Source: USDA 2 2

Factors Leading to Higher Commodity Prices Source: USDA-ERS, Trostle, July 2008

Corn The last few years have changed that relationship. Crop prices are now much more responsive to tighter stocks.

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Margins look good for the 2010 and 2011 crops. But costs will likely catch us in 2012.

Price Movements

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 7 7

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/