WG C – Groundwater Activity WGC-3 Risk Assessment (RA) and Conceptual Models (CM) Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER

Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) OBJECTIVES (Lisbon 2007) Improved & Integrated Risk Assessment for Groundwater at River Basin Level Update of characterisation under Art. 5 of the WFD (until 2013) Supporting River Basin Management Planning (2nd cycle) Adaptive management 2015-2027 ‘lessons learnt’ by implementing the WFD during the last years!

Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) AIM & SCOPE Conceptual models Sound system understanding Understanding of impacts and measures Risk Assessment Generic elements, specific WFD-implementation Reviewing risk assessment approaches Refining procedures (including monitoring results) Risk Management Reducing risks, feasible measures at proportionate costs Balancing cost-benefit-aspects Public acceptance

Structure proposals Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) Conceptual models (discussed in Llubljana, April 2008) Risk Assessment Risk Management DG Leader meeting (Mechelen, July 2008) discussion of merging the 3 lines of action further procedure and work plan result: proposal for a revised work plan

WG C plenary (Paris, November 2008) proposal for a revised work plan Activity WGC-3 WG C plenary (Paris, November 2008) proposal for a revised work plan either integrating 3 lines of action into one activity or 2009 focused effort Risk Assessment and Conceptual Modeling Risk Management (techn. report) as a separate working issue for 2010 specific topic on cost-benefit-analysing

Activity WGC-3 Working plan 2009: 2 separate drafting meetings March: drafting group meeting (Vienna) June, 29-30: Frankfurt 2 meetings in parallel to WG C plenary 27.04 Prague 14.10 Stockholm draft “integrated risk assessment and adaptive management“ approved by end of the year

Activity WGC-3 State of play DG meetings (March 10/11; April 27) CONCEPTUAL MODEL draft content revised RISK ASSESSMENT establishing a common understanding references (e.g. technical report on groundwater risk assessment, IMPRESS & other guidance documents)

“regional aspects”: Art. 4 objectives of the WFD Activity WGC-3 RISK ASSESSMENT “regional aspects”: Art. 4 objectives of the WFD “local aspects”: prevent and limit – GWD Conceptual models are tools and basis to understand GW-bodies systemically bridge the process from risk assessment to risk management

3 pre-requisites for an appropriate and successful pressures and impact analysis

Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) “Risk”: WFD & GWD citations WFD: 26 references (incl. recitals and annexes) prevent and limit (Guidance No 17) priority substances risk assessment (Art. 5 & Techn. reports 2003 & 2004) chemical status (Guidance No 18 & No 15) quantitative status (Guidance No 15) environmental risk DWPAs (Guidance No. 16) trend assessment (Guidance No 18) GWD: 6 references Chemical status (Guidance No 18)

Guidance on Risk Assessment very broad term, used in many disciplines, by science and policy common understanding related to WFD & GWD focus: WFD Annex II & article 4 objectives prevent/limit inputs good groundwater status (chemical + quantitative) reverse upward trends general demand: build on available materials Most urgent needed: general framework

Risk Assessment vs. Status assessment 12

Risk Assessment General considerations forecast to the future considering knowledge of previous planning circles reviewing risk characterisations reviewing monitoring data considering recent and ongoing changes within the system (e.g. land use, precipitation) to review monitoring strategy and measures significance, confidence uncertainty (... likelihood of ...) tiered approach availability and use of data

More specific assessments Risk Assessment Tiered approaches Increasing difficulty in deciding if body is at risk (e.g. because its true condition is close to the good – moderate status boundary Risk screening Water bodies not at risk Water bodies at risk Water bodies needing further assessment to determine risk More specific assessments Water bodies not at risk Water bodies at risk Water bodies needing further assessment to determine risk Being aware of uncertainty in decision making is going to be an important issue. The directive is explicit in this respect (Annex V sect 1.3) requiring adequate confidence and precision in the classification of the quality elements and that estimates of confidence and precision of results of monitoring programmes shall be provided in the river basin management plans. Much of this will depend on the monitoring programmes adopted, particularly the frequency at which parameters are measured (I will say more on this in a moment) Current quality is compared to a Reference condition to calculate a numeric EQR and error will be associated with both the Reference and the Observed condition. This error does not cancel, in fact it is closer to the sum of the errors and thus is is important to minimise the variability in the Reference condition. In practice it is likely that we will have to assume that the reference condition is error free, but the point re-enforces the difficulties inherent in the approach. Water bodies at risk Water bodies not at risk Detailed assessments 14

Guidance on Risk Assessment structure (1) 1. Introduction/Definition Refer to Art 4, 5 and 7 WFD & Art 4, 5 and 6 GWD. (including link to the Nitrates Directive) Purpose: guidance and support for 2nd cycle RBM planning (reporting on review of risk assessment due in 2013) references to risk in WFD and GWD (linked to Annex) screening and linking to other guidance documents and other WGs 2. Setting the frame (overarching context) set the frame for receptors role in RBMP

Guidance on Risk Assessment structure (2) 3. Risks rather regional aspects: Risk to failing good status. failing objectives of Art. 4 WFD Risk of failing trend reversal rather local aspects: Risk of spreading Risk of contamination (by a new activity) à then referring to prevent and limit objectives significance regarding regional aspects Screening and linking to other guidance papers possibility to follow objectives for subchapters (?) 4. Info: 4D CM for use in RA and RM

WG C – Groundwater Activity WGC-3 Risk Assessment (RA) and Conceptual Models (CM) Wouter GEVAERTS Thomas TRACK Dietmar MÜLLER 17