Market Cycles and Where the Market Is Now Steve Schepman
Market Cycles
Indicators in the Economy and Markets
Indicators of Economic Downturns Slower consumer spending Inverted yield curve Rising unemployment Inflationary Pressure Will value of money invested beat inflation? Net present value high (risk-free rate, inflation, ect) High interest rate, future value of earnings decrease
Qualitative Signs of Market Instability Tense international relations People start buying on credit Assessment of health of economy and stock market- take into account if borrow 3. Rampant speculation: everybody thinks market will continue past growth
Quantitative Indicators of Future Volatility NYSE Advance/Decline Line Conference Board’s leading economic index 52 week highs decrease Price of copper to price of gold
What these Indicators Say about Market Now
Consumer Confidence
Yield Curve Short term loans become bad because become as expensive or more expensive than long term loans This causes slowdown in businesses borrowing capital Slowdown in economy- people sell investments Short term loans become bad because become as expensive or more expensive than long term loans This causes slowdown in businesses borrowing capital Slowdown in economy- people sell investments Fed pushes rate up during recession? Trying to cushion growth
Unemployment Rate Wage growth when unemployment low but creates inflation in the end Minimum wage hikes- eventually inflation Wage growth when unemployment low but creates inflation in the end Minimum wage hikes- eventually inflation
NYSE A/D Line Red bar at end represents lower investor confidence Follows presidential cycle 601- next meeting Red bar at end represents lower investor confidence Follows presidential cycle
Price of Copper to Price of Gold Price of copper is indicator of where industrial growth is at and price of gold indicates who is saving to hedge against inflation, uncertainty and store the value Use this ratio to get an idea of whether the economy is growing or slowing
Factors in Recent Market Decline Financials: Deutsche Bank Emerging markets Trade war Rising interest rates
Trade War Trump issues tariffs on agricultural and other goods (16B) U.S chipmaker micron ordered to stop selling chips in China by China At WTO conference, U.S accused China of stealing tech secrets from U.S Tariffs continue between countries Talks with chinese ambassadors Talks cancelled and tweets by Trump 90 day delay of trade war Arrest of Huwaii top executive
Conclusion The market seems to be at its peak and approaching a decline period that will most likely turn into another recession towards the end of 2019 or in 2020
Citations https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-reliable-indicator-of-a-bear-market-in-stocks-and-a-recession-just-flashed-a-warning-2018-07-09 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trouble-ahead-what-4-recession-indicators-say-about-the-economy-2017-12-28 https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2014/01/06/the-most-reliable-indicator-of-an-approaching-market-top/#511c298a3a58 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-06/the-trade-war-is-on-timeline-of-how-we-got-here-and-what-s-next https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/ https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/taking-the-pulse-of-dr-copper-for-2019.html