Current progress in aviation nowcasting at SAWS: A Demo Project Morné Gijben Ngwako Mohale, Stephanie Landman, Mary-Jane Bopape, Erik Becker 2nd ANNUAL WeatherSMART SCIENCE SYMPOSIUM 18-19 March 2019 Morne.Gijben@weathersa.co.za 2019/04/30 Doc Ref no: RES-PPT-WeatherSMART-Symposium-GIJ002-001.1

Content Introduction Aviation Research Demonstration Project (AvRDP) Radar-based Thunderstorm Table for airports Lightning Monitoring and Alert System for airports Work in progress Conclusion 2019/04/30

1. Introduction Adverse weather conditions can have major impacts on the aviation industry and can cause disruptions in operations at airports as well as on on-route flights. Adverse weather poses a risk to passengers, crew and airport workers, while also causing major financial losses in the industry every year due to delays and property damage. It is therefore critical for Weather Services to assist with products tailored for the aviation industry to help with decision making and reduce the impacts of adverse weather conditions. It is also vital that these products and services are easy to interpret and understandable by the users who often don’t have a meteorological background. The International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) recognized these threats in their Global Air Navigation Plan. 2019/04/30

ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan Air traffic growth expands two-fold every 15 years and the challenge is how to achieve both safety and operational improvements that is: Globally harmonized Environmentally responsible Cost-effective Aviation System Block Upgrade (ASBU) – 2013-2028 onward Need enhanced meteorological information to support ASBU 2019/04/30

2. Aviation Research Demonstration Projects (AvRDP) In support of the Aviation System Block Upgrade under the new ICAO Global Aviation Navigation Plan, the WMO Congress approved a new aviation specific research project at the end of 2014, called the Aviation Research Demonstration Project (AvRDP) The overall mission of AvRDP is to: through international collaboration, develop, demonstrate and quantify the benefits of end-to-end nowcasting aviation weather services for the terminal area focused on high impact weather. 2019/04/30

Objectives of AvRDP Phase I – MET capability research, focusing on nowcasting and mesoscale modelling research at a number of international airports to support the Aviation System Block Upgrade under the Global Aviation Navigation Plan. Phase II – MET-ATM impact translation and validation, focusing on translating meteorological information into air traffic management impact to demonstrate the benefits of MET information to the aviation community. Capacity Building – to help in capacity building via the knowledge gained in AvRDP to other WMO members who need to enhance their aviation MET services to meet the ASBU initiative. 2019/04/30

Participating Airports Original 6 airports Additional 4 airports since 2017 2019/04/30

3. SAWS Radar Network SAWS operates a network of state of the art weather radars which is the most important tool for nowcasting and as a result is a crucial tool for the aviation industry. 11 - S-band radars 3 - C-band radars 2 - X-band radars 2019/04/30

Radar Information TITAN software Tracking thunderstorms Forecast tracks (2-hour lead time) Map becomes cluttered and needs to be interpreted Get an easier to interpret color-coded table 2019/04/30

Thunderstorm Table Radar Image Tracking Storms in relation to airport Risk Matrix Colour-coded Thunderstorm Table 2019/04/30

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4. SAWS Lightning Detection Network Lightning poses a risk to the aviation industry, especially at the terminal area. SAWS operates a state of the art lightning detection network that consists of 25 VAISALA lightning sensors. The sensors make use of both magnetic direction finding and time-of-arrival methods to pinpoint the location of lightning strikes. The network can detect >90% of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and can accurately position lightning stokes within <500 meters over South Africa. 2019/04/30

Lightning Monitoring and Alert System A lightning warning system was developed for airports. Three buffer zones are drawn on an interactive google map with the airport at the center. The distances of the buffer zones are customizable and can for example be 5, 10 and 15 km from the airport. Lightning strikes are represented by red dots on the maps. 2019/04/30

Lightning Monitoring and Alert System If no lightning is observed within 15 km of the airport all the range rings around black lines. If lightning occurs at a range of 10 to 15 km from the airport, the 15km range ring turns green. Lightning occurrence between 5 and 10 km radius from the airport turns the 10 km range ring orange. If lightning is observed within 5 km from the airport the 5 km range ring turns red. The system also has the capability to provide a siren (audible) warning once lightning is within say 5 km of the airport and can also send emails to the appropriate user. 2019/04/30

Lightning Alert System 2019/04/30

Work in progress Testing of a high resolution (300 meter) Numerical Weather Prediction Model over O.R. Tambo International Airport. Blending the NWP model with a 9-hour Com-SWIRLS extrapolation of radar data to increase Thunderstorm Table lead-time. Blended Product 2019/04/30

Work in progress Linking of meteorological data with data received from AMC to translate the MET information into ATM impact. Deriving capacity levels, arrival/departure delays etc. Collaborative effort between AMC, ATM, Airlines and forecasters. Deriving Impact Forecasts from MET information Impact Table & integration into ATM systems MET Information What the weather will be… What the weather will do… Improved decision making… 2019/04/30

Conclusion The SAWS developed an easy to interpret colour-coded Thunderstorm Table that uses radar tracks to monitor the risk of thunderstorms at airports. A lightning monitoring and alert system was also developed for airports which uses observed lightning information to send out alerts for airports. The Thunderstorm Table as well as the Lightning Monitoring and Alert system is now available for most of the major airports in South Africa (O.R. Tambo, King Shaka, Bloemfontein, East London, Port Elizabeth and Cape Town International Airports) The products will be rolled-out to smaller airports during the year. SAWS will continue to participate in the WMO AvRDP project and also have plans to roll-out additional products to airports during the coming year. 2019/04/30

Thank You! 2019/04/30