APES 12/8 Grab a laptop and pull up your age structure homework on google classroom

Learning Target I can describe the 4 stages of Demographic Transition and explain why they correlate to a certain age structure diagram.

Country Jigsaw Number off by 5’s You will be assigned a country (U.S., Japan, Nigeria, India, China) Compare your answers to the questions inside the box for your country Choose a spokesperson for your group

Demographic Transition Movement of a nation from high to low pop. growth as it develops economically: Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate

Demographic Transition: Stages

Pop. Pyramids at Diff. Stages

Stage 1: Pre-Industrial High birth rates, high (at times erratic) death rates, low growth rates Stage for much of human history No current countries

Stage 2: Transitional High birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates Improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine In developing countries since the 50s/60s Much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

Demographic Trap Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries “Trapped” in Stage 2 Before 1970, these countries were poised to make transition thanks to economic growth Since 1970, econ. growth has not kept pace with population Downward spiral in standard of living

Demographic Fatigue Lack of $$$ and ability to deal with natural disasters and disease Possibility that countries could slip back into Stage 1

Stage 3: Industrial Decline of death rate, birth rate, and growth rate Change in behavior: Infant mortality decreases, birth control increases Economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)

Stage 4 & 5: Post-Industrial Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates United States today Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates) several countries of Europe today

Demographic Transition Activity This is due next time!

Total Fertility Rate Total fertility rate (TFR) The average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime (NOT per 1,000 people) Most important indicator of pop. growth Global average = 2.36 (down from 4.95 in 1950!) Average in developed countries = 1.5 Average in developing countries = 3.8

Global TFR’s

Falling TFR’s don’t mean fewer people! Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

Replacement Fertility Rate Replacement fertility rate (RFR) The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves Takes into account infant mortality and people who don’t reproduce A rate of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates Africa RFR = 2.5

Population Lag When a country’s TFR changes due to education, disease, etc., it takes a generation for declining pop. growth to show up. Why? The babies born before the rate declined still have to grow up and have babies of their own.

Factors that Influence TFR Empowerment of women Family planning programs Poverty HIV/AIDS Key is to get women to stop having so many babies – and to feel like they don’t need to have as many children

The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development In 1994 Cairo, Egypt 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years Offer better education and health care and alleviate poverty, disease, and sexism

Poverty and The Environment Exponential pop. growth leads to environmental damage because impoverished people are focused on survival. Overpopulation in Africa has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands/desertification. Deforestation in the Amazon Destruction of bamboo forests in China

Affluence and the Environment Wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts. The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.

Measuring Impact of Affluence Environmental Impact Equation Credited to Paul Ehrlich, an ecologist (1970’s) I = P x A x T I= Total Impact P= Population size A= Affluence T= Level of technology

IPAT(S) Equation: Why? Population = individuals need space and resources Affluence = greater per capita resource use Technology = increased exploitation of resources Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure

Wednesday: A few more notes on fertility rates, IPAT Then…open note quiz on Chapter 7! 10 MC Q’s and a half-FRQ