Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 This slide may be shown at the beginning of the presentation. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2012 Dstl

A Balanced, Modern, and Ready Deployed OR Capability Richard Hoyes rphoyes@dstl.gov.uk Dstl, UK DSTL/CP109144 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Outline Background Modern UK Military Operations UK OR Support to Operations Developing Deployable OR Capability Options for Readiness Models Deployable Pipeline Case Study Caribbean 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Background 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Modern UK Military Operations Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Modern UK Military Operations Changing and diverse range of operations the UK military supports. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Maritime security, counter-piracy, migrants. Counter Da’esh in Middle East, training teams in Afghanistan & Africa. Specialist skills and medical provision (Sierra Leone). Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Small scale targeted military operations, cyber and preparing for large scale combat operations. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

OR Support to Operations Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 OR Support to Operations Reachback to the UK UK provides science, technology and Operational Research to these operations in two key ways. Reachback from theatre and deploying to theatre. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Illustrative S&T Advice Requested via Reachback: May-17 to Apr-18 Where? What? Frequency? Who? If we cannot deploy due to size of operation, nature of operation, threat environment or the level of demand in theatre the military always have access to science, technology and analysis reachback. Some provided 24/7. 150 last year. Mainly provided through our Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) (similar to CENTCOM) and UK Operations Directorate. These are typically more science focussed and not the focus of my talk. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

UK OR Support to Operations Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 UK OR Support to Operations Reachback to the UK Second way is through deploying staff to theatre to provide the timely advice. These can be Scientific Advisors or Operational Analysts (OAs). Deployment to theatre 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

UK Role of Deployed Operational Analysts (OA) Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 UK Role of Deployed Operational Analysts (OA) Deployed Provide Operational Research in support of military… OAs provide Operational research in military HQs. But why do we provide it deployed? 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 To provide on-the-spot decision support to the military Immediate advice to the HQ and situational awareness. © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Quantified and objective conclusions An audit trail for decision making We provide the advice to support the decisions. But from a scientific/analytical point of view. © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Access to expertise across S&T community An independent view As civilians out of the normal military mindset and hierarchy we provide an independent view and access back into Dstl. © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Example Deployed OA Work 04 May 2019

Developing UK Deployable OR Capability Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Developing UK Deployable OR Capability Worked to develop and improve our deployable capability. Researching into how to best structur eit and deliver it to best effect to the military. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Options for Readiness Models Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Options for Readiness Models Explored different approaches to preparing deployees. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Time  Notification Deployment Cost Risk Enhanced training Reactive Dedicated Augmentee Wider Pool Reactive: ‘No notice’ identification of personnel Dedicated: Staff are employed in roles that prepares them for a deployed post with minimal additional training required. Mandatory preparation is done in order to meet deployment timelines, with some done in advance as necessary. Augmentee: Most suitable for roulement type roles; staff reduce normal work to a minimum in order to prepare for a deployed role. Mandatory preparation is done in advance of notification to deploy. Wider Pool: Staff remain in current work but complete preparatory training over a <2 year timeframe. Mandatory Preparation is conducted as part of this preparatory training. Key Analyst identified for deployment pre-deployment training On job training / normal working Enhanced training 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Developing SQEP Definition Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Developing SQEP Definition Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person Tasks Person Methods Data Models Tools Post Op Reports Deployee Interviews Current Ops Exercise data Skills Knowledge Behaviours Sources Looked at a number of sources to analyse what tasks people are expected to undertake, the models, methods, tools and data they would need to enable them. But also the skills, knowledge and behaviours they need to have to enable them to be the best ability. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Selection Process Training Pipeline Readiness Pool Assessment centre: Technical challenges + interview 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 OA Assessment Centre Military role play with typical OA tasks Other varied injects Too much work in time Emphasis on method & approach Plus traditional interview Identifies Potential 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Training to Deployment Training Pipeline Readiness Pool Assessment centre: Technical challenges + interview SQEP (Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person): Evidence to show skills knowledge and behaviours 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Training Delivery of training is achieved through: Lectures & tutorials Practical modules Annual week long intensive problem based learning event: Front Line OA Training Exercise (FLOATEX) Military formation exercises Experts & deployable versions 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Assurance of SQEP Training Pipeline Readiness Pool Assessment centre: Technical challenges + interview SQEP (Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person): Evidence to show skills, knowledge and behaviours 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Knowledge, Skills and Behaviours Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Knowledge, Skills and Behaviours OA core skills Deployable tools and software Analytical methods Technical communication Military HQ awareness Military domain and capability awareness S&T capability awareness Interpersonal Skills Behaviours Readiness Environmental specific 120 different areas were identified and grouped together. We then manage them at the higher level and score people 0-5 on their ability. © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Qualified Readiness Pool Training Pipeline Readiness Pool Assessment centre: Technical challenges + interview SQEP (Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person): Evidence to show skills, knowledge and behaviours Notice to move: V High – 5 days High – 30 days Low – 90 days 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Deployed OA Roles     Analyst     Analytical Skills Additional Leadership Skills Additional Analytical Skills Not based on day job level or grade. Skillset specific. Lead Analyst Senior Analyst Senior Lead Analyst 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Methods, Models, Tools and Data MMTD Training Pipeline Readiness Pool Assessment centre: Technical challenges + interview SQEP (Suitably Qualified & Experienced Person): Evidence to show skills knowledge and behaviours Notice to move: V High – 5 days High – 30 days Low – 90 days 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Sample MMTD areas Operations Assessment Wargaming Database Management & Insight Extraction Spreadsheets & Automation Statistical / Trend / Temporal Analysis Casualty / DNBI Analysis Geospatial Analysis Historical Analysis Simulation Modelling Red Teaming/ Alternative Thinking Combat Resolution Modelling Data Science Three areas of particular interest. Red teaming is an area of growth. Combat modelling is a challenge at the moment. Data science, we need to understand how to use it deployed. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Case Study – Caribbean Operation RUMAN Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Case Study – Caribbean Operation RUMAN Deployment in Autumn 2017 was a test to see if what we had been preparing for worked as a different type of Operation. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 UK British Overseas Territories were heavily impacted. UK provided support. Ships nearby and then marines and HQ deployed quickly. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 1 Analyst 60 hours notice I deployed to support the HQ with 60 hours notice. I was only there for 3 weeks. 3 week deployment 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 UK Joint Interagency Task Force (JIATF) – UK Department for International Development (DFID) & Joint Force Headquarters (JFHQ). Risks to the plans. Analysis of the redeployment freight data to correct it. Availability prediction of new A400M airframe & older Hercules. Dashboard to help the HQ manage the plan after I returned to UK 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Final thoughts 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Our Next Challenges… What are the most useful techniques to train in? Are we “over insuring”? Alternative options? 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 Questions? 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2017 Dstl © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Content includes material subject to © Crown copyright (2018), Dstl Content includes material subject to © Crown copyright (2018), Dstl. This material is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 04/05/2019 This slide may be shown at the end of the presentation. 04 May 2019 © Crown copyright 2018 Dstl © Crown copyright 2012 Dstl