Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC) Research division of the MO DED Composed of LMI, and Economic and Workforce Research groups Provides analyses and assistance to policymakers and the public Recognized with 14 national awards for research excellence since it was formed in 2001 MERIC is the research division for the Missouri Department of Economic Development. MERIC is composed of the Labor Market Information group (QCEW, CES, OES, LAUS), Economic and Workforce Research groups (Projections, Real Time Labor Market Summaries, Labor Availability Reports, Industry Studies). We provide innovative analyses and assistance to policymakers and the public, including studies of the state’s economic trends, targeted industries, and labor markets. MERIC research also includes workforce region studies, spatial analyses, and comprehensive coverage of the state’s industry and occupational data produced in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor. MERIC has been recognized with 14 national awards for research excellence since it was formed in 2001.

What are Career Grades? Tool to help compare the future outlook of occupations Each occupation is assigned a letter grade from A+ to F Career Grades can assist students, job seekers, displaced workers, educators and workforce professionals in choosing which careers have the best outlook Grades are a tool to help compare the future outlook of an occupation. Each occupation is assigned a letter grade from A+ through F, with A+ occupations having the best outlook and F occupations having the worst. Career Grades can assist students, job seekers, displaced workers, educators and workforce professionals in choosing which careers have the best outlook in terms of having good job growth, a large number of job openings, and offer an above average wage for job seekers. These grades can be a good starting point for job seekers. They can start a conversation about career planning.

Career Grades Over 800 occupations are graded Grades are assigned for occupations for statewide and all 10 WDA regions Each occupation’s grade is unique to its particular geographic region Over 800 occupations are graded. MERIC uses the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes, which is established by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Career Grades are produced for statewide and all 10 Workforce Development Regions (WDA) regions in the state. The release of the grades coincides with the release of Long-Term Projections. Each occupation’s grade is unique to it’s particular region. You could have the same occupation with different grades in different regions. A grade for an occupation in one region may not be the same for the same occupation in a different region.

Methodology Career Grades are determined by using three variables: Projected Percentage of Growth Projected Total Openings Growth – actual new job growth Exits – workers leave the workforce entirely Transfers – workers leave an occupation for a different one Average Wage The normal distribution is calculated for each variable and used to calculate the career grade. Career Grades are determined by using three variables: 1. The Projected Percentage of Growth from the base year (2016) to the projected year (2026) 2. Projected Total Openings from base year to projected year - this includes growth openings, exit openings, and transfer openings (growth openings – occur when an occupation grows between the base year and projected year; Exit openings- occur when a worker leaves the workforce entirely; Transfer openings – occur when a worker leaves their occupation for a different one. 3. Average Wages for each occupation for 2017 (for 2016-2026 Projections, 2017 was the most recent year we had wage data for) In order for an occupation to be assigned a grade, it must have data from all three variables. Occupations that lack data from any of these three variables will have an “N/A” for it’s Career Grade. The variables for each occupation are only compared within the same region. The normal distribution is calculated for each variable for each occupation, and is assigned a value of 1-10, with 1 being much less than the mean for a particular variable and 10 being much greater than the mean. Each occupation’s three variable values are then added together, creating a range from 3 to 30. Grades are then assigned to each occupation based on a grading scale, with 3 being the lowest grade possible (F), and 30 being the highest grade possible (A+).

Methodology Average Wage – from OES (LEWIS) Projected Percent Growth – from Occupational Projections Projected Total Openings – from Occupational Projections First, you’ll need to find the data for all three variables for each occupation. The Average Wages will come from OES. You can get them from LEWIS, in order to get the unsuppressed wages, and to get the wages for the geographic regions that you did projections for. The Projected Percent Growth and Projected Total Openings will both come from the Occupational Projections. You’ll want to get the unsuppressed data. On the table on the bottom of the slide, you can see that each occupation has the three variable values in the highlighted columns.

Methodology Determine the mean and standard deviation for each variable, using all occupations available for the area. Use the AVERAGE and STDEVP function in Excel. Next you’ll determine the mean and standard deviation for each of the three variables. I used the “average” and STDEVP functions in Excel.

Methodology Calculate each occupation’s normal distribution (ND) for each of the 3 variables, formatting as a percentage. Use the “NORMDIST” function in Excel. Next you calculate each occupation’s normal distribution for each of the 3 variables. The higher the normal distribution percentage the higher up on the spectrum that occupation is going to be for that particular variable. For example, SOC code 111011 in the upper left corner of the example has an average wage of $104,890, which is a very high wage, relative to other occupations, and this is reflected in its normal distribution percentage of 99.2%.

Methodology Convert the normal distribution percentages into numbers, using the following guide: Then you can convert the normal distribution percentages into numbers using the table at the top of the slide. *CLICK* On the slide, you can see that the first occupation has a normal distribution percentage of 99.2% for wages. So using the scale on the top, you would convert that to the number 10. Continue to convert the percentage into a number 1 through 10 for each variable for all the occupations.

Methodology Each variable for each occupation will have one number. Total these three variable numbers together for each occupation. After you’ve converted all the percentages into a number between 1 and 10, you should have one number for each variable for each occupation. Add up the 3 different numbers for each occupation.

Methodology These total numbers are then converted into grades using the following table: Finally, convert the number in the “total” column into a grade using the table at the top of this slide. *CLICK* The first occupation on the example has a “total” number of 20. So you go up to the table at the top, and you can see that a 20 translates to a B+ grade.

Career Grade Distribution If we look at the statewide grade distribution across all 808 occupations, we see that most of the occupations are in the B to C range. Grade B has the highest number of occupations, but C and C+ occupations added together have more occupations than B and B+ added together. This is just the statewide grade distribution. If we look at the grade distribution for other areas of the state, it might look differently.

2016 MO Employment by Career Grade If we look at total 2016 employment we can see that Grade B occupations account for almost half (47.8%) of the employment in the state, followed by Grade C (30.2%) and Grade A (14.2%). Previous slides showed number of occupations, but this chart shows actual employment. So while there are more C occupations than B occupations, if we look at actual employment, there are much more people employed in Grade B occupations.

Job Openings 2016-2026 This chart show the breakdown of projected job openings by Grade.

Regional Data The occupations for each area are graded using the data only for that area Kansas City WDA has 63 Grade A occupations Only 4 occupations are Grade A occupations in all 10 WDA regions 76 occupations are Grade A in only one region. Missouri is split up into ten regions called Workforce Development Areas or WDAs. The grades assigned for each region are determined by comparing only the occupations within that region. Due to regional differences, it is possible for the same occupation to have a good outlook (and high grade) in one region, but have a poor outlook (and low grade) in another region. The Kansas City WDA region has the most Grade A occupations with 63. The average number of Grade A occupations for each WDA region is 42. A good example of the diversity across the WDA regions and to show that an occupation may not necessarily have the same grade in different regions: Only 4 occupations are Grade A occupations in all 10 WDA regions. (Management; Computer and Mathematical; Healthcare Practitioners and Technical; Personal Care and Service) 76 occupations are Grade A occupations in only one WDA region. In general, the more rural the area is, the more “n/a” you’ll have for grades, because it is less likely that all three variables will be available. Only 5% of the occupations in the Saint Louis region didn’t have grades available, while 14% of occupations in the South Central region didn’t have grades available. *N/A is from unavailable wage data. Staffing patterns are from 2016, but wage data is from 2017. There can be wage and employment data for an occupation in 2016, but not 2017.

MERIC - Career Grades https://www. missourieconomy This is a screenshot of the Missouri Career Grades page on the MERIC website. *CLICK* On this page are the Career Grades report, an excel file that shows a complete list of occupations and their grades, and links to print or order a poster.

Missouri 2014-2024 Projections https://www. missourieconomy If you click on the link for the “complete career grade list”, you are taken to this spreadsheet. This is the Missouri 2014-2024 Projections Spreadsheet. It has a complete list of occupations and their grades. *CLICK* The grades are on the leftmost column. Most occupations will have a grade, but if an occupation is missing one of the three variables necessary to calculate the grades, then that occupation will have an “N/A” in the grade column. It’s important to keep in mind that these are statewide projections. An occupation’s grade for Missouri may not have the same grade when you look at particular WDA’s within the state. In addition to Career Grades, there is also data for STEM; and NOW, NEXT, LATER for each occupation. These classifications are constant for an occupation regardless of the region. The STEM column indicates whether a particular occupation is a “STEM Core”, or “STEM Related” occupation. “Core” means that an occupation is strictly using STEM skills. “Related” means that an occupation is using related STEM skills (Related examples: Architecture and Health Care).

Career Grades 2014-2024 Report https://www. missourieconomy The 2014-2024 Career Grades report highlights occupations at the A,B, and C grade levels. It also highlights each of the state’s 10 WDA regions and lists occupations with the best outlook for each of those regions. This report is an overview of Career Grades, but does not provide a comprehensive list of all occupations for each geographic area and the corresponding grade for each occupation. The occupational projections spreadsheets, that we viewed previously, are the best places to acquire that data. Also, you can download the spreadsheets and sort or filter the data in ways that might be helpful to you.

Career Grades Poster https://www. missourieconomy Several of our WIOA partners use career grades including High Schools, Community Colleges, Vocational Rehabilitation offices. The posters can serve as a starting point for individuals in their career planning. In addition to ordering full size posters, smaller posters can also be printed off from the website. The posters are available in English or Spanish. Some schools have placed them on bulletin boards around their campuses. An individual who works in Vocational Rehabilitation says that, they distributed the posters to all of their 24 district VR offices.  They hang them in prominent spots, like the lobby or resource rooms.  They are used mostly to stimulate conversation when discussing career pathways or ideas for jobs.  They assist our counselors in guidance and counseling toward their career goals.

Webinar https://www.missourieconomy.org/e_learning/webinars.stm *Click There’s also a webinar available on our website that goes over what Career Grades are, how they are calculated, where they can be found on our website, and some highlights from the Career Grades report.

Questions? Christopher Will Research Analyst (573) 751-5470 christopher.will@ded.mo.gov Career Grades: https://www.missourieconomy.org/occupations/career_grades.stm 2016-2026 Occupation Projections: https://www.missourieconomy.org/occupations/occ_proj.stm