Enforcement Advocacy Stewardship Education Lower Susquehanna RIVERKEEPER® and Lower Susquehanna Riverkeeper Association Enforcement Advocacy Stewardship Education

Conowingo Dam

FlowWest – Review of LSRWA Purpose of Expert – Review modeling analyses performed for the LSWRA. Ensure that the appropriate input data and assumptions were used Offer professional opinions on additional or revised modeling analyses that should have been performed. Conclusions – LSRWA depended on a “daisy chain” of models that passed outputs successively from one model to another. Predicted sediment quantities were lower than the best available estimates or actual measured data suggested Underrepresentation of potential sediment impacts (and in turn likely nutrient impacts) on the Chesapeake Bay.

LSRWA Review Paul Frank – FlowWest Figure 1: Comparison of Conowingo Flow based on Instantaneous record, Daily average Flow REcord, a 24-hour running average, and storm averaged flow

Large Storm Event Probability

Climate Change Facts Average temperature in the Northeast are expected to rise between 2.7 and 3 °F by 2035, between 3.6 and 4.8 °F by 2055, and between 4.7 and 8 °F by 2085, compared with the average temperature in 1971-1999. Annual amount of precipitation in the NE is expected to increase between 2-7% in 2041-2070, compared with 1971-2000. Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is expected to increase by about 10-20% in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by 2041-2070,

Wendy McPherson (USGS) - 9/20/04

Hurricane Ivan – September 2004 Susquehanna River Bay Bridge

Conowingo Clip

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