LAMAS Working Group 17-18 June 2015 Agenda Item 4.1 Seasonal adjustment of LFS main indicators Hannah.Kiiver@ec.europa.eu

Current situation I

Current situation II Main indicators now Corrected for some breaks before 2005; Linear interpolations between spring quarters; Not seasonally adjusted; Different levels of detail for breakdowns;

Review of main indicators Harmonize breakdowns and presentation on Eurostat website; Improve (and publish) estimates between spring quarters; Correct most important breaks also after 2005; Seasonally adjust quarterly series.

Estimates - ARIMA modelling instead of linear interpolation

Estimates - ARIMA modelling instead of linear interpolation

Break correction Census breaks Level shift breaks Implementation only once all re-weighted data is received; Break is distributed linearly over complete time span between last census and last re-weighted data. Level shift breaks With available double data: based on difference; Without available double data: based on comparison of trends before and after the break;

Seasonal adjustment Indirect adjustment (of more than 4000 series); TRAMO/SEATS; Partial concurrent adjustment: models/filters/outliers are determined once a year (after full year is available), parameters/factors re-estimated each quarter;

Implementation First publication of series: end of 2015, incl back-estimates and seasonal adjustment; Bilateral discussion with concerned countries about break corrections -> take into account any information available in NSIs; Implement break corrections by country as soon as available, with updated estimates where necessary.