Early Warning System Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department

ATTENDANCE MATTERS Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05-06 to 13-14)

ATTENDANCE AND GPA MATTERS Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05-06 to 13-14)

Initial RISK using attendance and GPA <1.0 F 1.0-1.99 D 2.0-2.99 C 3.0-3.99 B 4.0+ A ATTENDANCE RATE Less than 70%* 70% - 80%* 80% - 90%* More than 90%* * For elementary students, the cut-offs are 85%, 90%, and 92%

Early Warning System Retention Former dropout Credits vs Grade Level Information on Attendance and Grades combined with: Retention Former dropout Credits vs Grade Level State/District Assessments Out-of-school suspensions To determine High, Medium, and Low Risk for Dropout

Almost 2/3 of dropouts are High Risk students, FACTS for High Risk Students: Almost 2/3 of dropouts are High Risk students, despite being only 11% of All students 27 times more likely to dropout than Low Risk student Only about 10% graduate if High Risk continues

Less than 8% meet standards on Math AMP FACTS for High Risk Students: Less than 8% meet standards on Math AMP Average GPA is 1 letter grade lower than their peers High Risk in Elementary  High Risk in Secondary (over 50%) Dropout rate can be cut in HALF with interventions

Dropout rates by Risk Risk level Dropout LOW MED HIGH Total 21245 5703   Risk level Total LOW MED HIGH Dropout NO Count 21245 5703 2992 29940 YES 181 271 804 1256 % of DROPS 14% 22% 64% 100% DROPOUT RATE 0.8% 4.5% 21.2% 4% 21426 5974 3796 31196 % of TOTAL 69% 19% 11% Aggregated across 5 years (10-11 to 14-15)

Graduation rates by Risk 974 possible graduates, 100 High Risk (10.3%), 321 Medium Risk (33%), and 553 Low Risk (56.8%)

High Risk Dropout Rate: SWD = 21.3% non-SWD = 21.1% Dropout Rate by Groups and Risk: Student with Disability Dropout Rate = 7.4% Students without Disability Dropout Rate = 3.7% High Risk Dropout Rate: SWD = 21.3% non-SWD = 21.1% Economic Disadvantage = 22% Non-ED = 20% Limited English Proficient = 16% Non-LEP = 21.5% Caucasian = 20.9% African-American = 17.8% Hispanic = 19.6% Asian/PI = 20% AK Native/American Indian = 23%

Dropout Rates by Service Interventions with High Risk students lead to: Comparison group (No intervention) = 21.1% Treatment group (Intervention) = 10.8% “24+ contacts” group = 7% Early Warning System is a GAME CHANGER

Grades 7-12 Dropout Rates 05 to 15

Graduation success program ended, however Early Warning System still in operation Tidbits guide to staff List of students sent to school principals

School Input on Early Warning Systems 28 administrators, counselors, support staff, and teachers 21 schools Asked 6 questions: School, Role, Staff involved, interventions used, challenges, suggestions, final thoughts

School Input Survey Question 3 Who monitors the risk levels at your school? Teachers/counselors? Primary staff involved are counselors & prevention/intervention specialists Staff can view risk levels in Powerschool

School Input Survey Question 4 What interventions are provided for High Risk Students? Parental Contact Counseling After-school 1-to-1 connection with support staff RTI for academic support Programs: Special Ed., ANE, ELL, etc

School Input Survey Question 5 What do you perceive as the biggest challenge for serving High Risk Students? Time and Resources Lack of parental involvement Attendance Attendance – motivation, and lack of support from parents (especially if in Elementary)

School Input Survey Question 6 What suggestions do you have for improving the model in identifying low, medium, and high risk of dropout? None (most common response) Use MAP scores School-based referral process Other suggestions not related to model (considered for question 7) – Schools can prioritize students for services

School Input Survey Question 7 What else, if anything, would you like to add? More time and resources More professional development for staff More support More parental involvement Presented to various groups (student achievement focus group, all principals, and soon ANE)

Graduation and Dropout Rates 2006-07 to 2014-15 Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department

2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014-2015 2014-2015 Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; 2014-2015 statewide dropout results unavailable Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research

2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014-2015 2014-2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient

2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014-2015 2014-2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient

2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014-2015 2014-2015 Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; 2014-2015 statewide dropout results unavailable Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research

2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard 2014-2015 2014-2015 * - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient