HOLAS II: project to develop a 2nd Holistic Assessment of the Ecosystem Health of the Baltic Sea Ulla Li Zweifel, Professional Secretary

HELCOM Assessment System Attachment 3, HELCOM Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (2013). Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Core indicators Form the basis for thematic and holistic assessments. Should have a quantitative definition of Good Environmental Status (GES) (boundary or range). Regularly updated HELCOM core indicator reports to be published on the HELCOM web-site. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Holistic assessments Cover all aspects of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) and MSFD Inform on: the status of the Baltic Sea, pressure and resulting impacts and effects including cumulative and synergetic effects, social and economic aspects. Provide a basis for formulation of supplementary national and regional policies and measures. Assess the risk of not reaching the objectives and targets related to achieving and maintaining good environmental status. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

1st HELCOM holistic assessment (2010) Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Ecosystem health of the Baltic Sea Presenting results from the respective assessment of biodiversity, eutrophication, hazardous substances Based on grouping of indicators representing biological features, chemical features, supporting features BSEP 122 Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

HELCOM BSII and BSPI Pressure data layers (intensity) Ecosystem component data layers (presence) Impact (weight scores) Pressure data layers (intensity) ”Average” impact (weight scores) Baltic Sea Pressure index Korpinen S, Meski L. Andersen JH, Laamanen M, 2012, Human pressures and their potential impact on the Baltic Sea ecosystem, Ecological Indicators 15:105-114. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

HOLAS II project Update/develop HELCOM status assessment tools and the Baltic Sea Pressure and Impact Index Contribute to HELCOM assessments being fully operational and increasingly automated Carry out project according to the DPSIR framework Develop the HELCOM 2nd holistic assessment to serve as a joint “roof report” for 2018 reporting of Marine Strategy Framework Directive, considering e.g.; the 11 MSFD descriptors, Commission Decision on criteria and methodological standards on good environmental status of marine waters, the characteristics, pressures and impacts defined in MSFD Annex III. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Project management Chair and HOLAS II Core Team Coordinating function Lead Country A3 Lead Country A4+A5 Expert workshops Project Researcher/ Consultant A1 Coordinating function Main activities Input from HELCOM WGs, projects, expert groups Project Coordinator A6 Solutions Project Researcher/ Consultant A2 Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Tentative time-line for the production of the 2nd HELCOM Holistic assessment Development of tools and concepts Improvement of data flows Operalization of core indicators Carrying out assessments Prepare draft report Consultation period Finalizing report 2015 2016 2017 2018 Possibility to update the assessments with more recent data? Assessment period (aim): 2011-2016 Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Contributing assessments MORS EG: Thematic assessment of long-term changes in radioactivity in the Baltic Sea FISH-PRO II: Thematic assessment of the status of coastal fish MARITIME: Thematic assessment on maritime activities and response to pollution at sea Pollution Load Compilation 6 Ecological coherence of HELCOM MPAs Assessment of Pharmaceuticals Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Draft outline 0. Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. Methods section 3. Assessment of the status of ecosystem health 4.”Inputs” (pressures) and human activities acting on the environment 5. Social and economic aspects 6. Measures towards reaching GES 7. Conclusions and future outlook Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Status State based descriptors; separate assessment of major biological elements (D1, parts of D3, D4, part of D6) Pressure based descriptors (D2, part of 3, 5, parts of 6, (7), 8+9, 10, 11) Selection of trends in key parameters Supporting parameters to interpret result of the assessment tools (e.g. change in climatic factors between assessment periods). Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Pressures Spatial distribution and trends of main human activities and pressures, including core pressure indicator(s) Cumulative assessment of pressures using the BSPI/BSII Climate change Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Impact and response Social and economic aspects Cost-of degradation of the environment, benefits of mitigating environmental problems Measures towards reaching GES Regionally agreed targets Existing and planned measures Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Indicators - terms Core indicators: agreed as common HELCOM indicators Baltic wide whenever ecologically relevant, Parameters required for the core indicators are/will be monitored by all Contracting Parties when ecologically relevant. Pre-core indicator: identified as necessary for BSAP and MSFD purposes under development not yet adopted as a core indicator. Candidate indicator: living list of indicators identified to cover gaps in the BSAP and MSFD follow-up not yet a common understanding on the concept for the indicator Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Indicators - status CORESET II and EUTRO-OPER: Core indicator operationalization Developing the concept, target, data-flow etc status pressure Core 29 1 30 Pre-core 4 2 6 Candidate 15 21 48 9 TOT 57 Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Core indicator reports Regularly updated HELCOM core indicator reports to be published on the HELCOM web-site. Key message Indicator concept Results Monitoring requirements Data and confidence Publications and archieve Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Sub-divisions of the Baltic Sea The Baltic Sea is sub-divided for monitoring and assessment purposes (HELCOM Monitoring and Assessment Strategy 2013). Four hierarchical scales are used: the whole Baltic Sea, dividing of the Baltic Sea into 17 sub-basins, further division of the 17 sub-basins into coastal and off-shore areas further dividing the coastal areas into (138) water bodies or types according to the WFD. Other assessment units can be used provided they use the agreed boundaries and remain within the boundaries. Appropriate assessment level is defined for HELCOM status core indicators. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

2. Sub-basins Proposed e.g. for core indicators Population trends and abundance of seals Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

3. Offshore sub-basins and coastal areas Coastal areas proposed for e.g. core indicators: Abundance of key coastal fish species Abundance of coastal fish key functional groups (coastal areas: extending to 1 nm seaward from the baseline), off-shore area: waters beyond 1 nm seaward from the baseline) NB. Example - not actual status. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

4: Offshore sub-basins and coastal areas divided into WFD waterbodies/-types Proposed e.g. for indicators Lower depth limit distribution of macrophytes used for assessing eutrophiction (DIN, DIP, chl-a, secchi depth) Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

HELCOM Eutrophication assessment HEAT 3.0: Indicators are grouped under the MSFD criteria (2010/477EU) 1) Nutrient levels, 2) Direct Effects and 3) Indirect effects In each assessment unit: For each indicator: calculate a ratio between current status and GES for the indicators (GES/sub-GES indicator) For each criterion: calculate a weighted average of ratios of individual indicators (GES/sub-GES criterion) For theme/descriptor: use one-out-all-out principles between criteria (GES/sub-GES for eutrophication) Assessment of eutrophicaton status (BSEP 122) in offshore sub-basins and coastal areas. Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

Status of assessment tools HEAT (eutrophication): Current version 3.0. Aligned with MSFD - is currently further tested in EUTRO-OPER. CHASE (hazardous substances): Updated in HARMONY – will be updated in HOLAS II. BEAT (biodiversity): will be further developed in HOLAS II based on existing tools e.g from HELCOM, EU-project DEVOTES, Marmoni project BSPI and BSII (Baltic Sea Pressure and Impact Index): Updated in HARMONY – need further development for Baltic Sea. HOLAS (integrated assessment): Has not been further developed since last the holistic assessment; required? Ulla Li Zweifel EEA RSCs, 15 April 2015

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