Separations Update Lessons Learned, State Experiences, and Customer Reactions Nathan Harbert, California October 11, 2018 Hello, I’m Nathan Harbert, from the Labor Market Information Division (LMID) at the California Employment Development Department (EDD). I’m here to give an update on the rollout of the separations methodology, now implemented after years of discussion. Before I begin, here’s a quick trivia question/joke to help break the ice: ___? *CLICK*

Preparations Oct 2017 Distributed PR materials to unit, local analysts, & research team Nov 2017 Announced at Labor Market Information Advisory Meeting Feb 2018 Published Short-Term Statewide Projections April 2018 Updated projections methodology pages online After last year’s PMP Fall Summit, LMID began preparing for the eventual rollout of the separations methodology. *CLICK* In October 2017, the materials from the PR firm Piper & Gold became available, including facts sheets and the FAQs. We made these materials available to our unit, our local area analysts, and our division’s Applied Research Team. *CLICK* In November, we made the announcement at our Labor Market Information Advisory Meeting, attended by representatives from various California state agencies. *CLICK* At the end of February this year, we published our Short-Term Statewide Projections. *CLICK* In April, we updated our projections methodology pages with a note on separations. *CLICK* And most recently at the end of June, we published our Long-Term Statewide Projections. *CLICK* June 2018 Published Long-Term Statewide Projections

“All quiet on the western front.” Contacted: Results: Unit analysts Local area analysts Applied Research Team Ø *CLICK* In researching for this presentation, I checked with: *CLICK* -the other projections analysts in my unit *CLICK* -the local area analysts across the state *CLICK* -and our division’s Applied Research Team These constitute everyone in our division who may have possibly fielded a question of, about, or otherwise involving separations. *CLICK* And here’s what I found: *CLICK* Nothing. Absolutely no questions, comments, complaints, or concerns. To borrow a title, it is *CLICK* “All Quiet on the Western Front”. *CLICK* “All quiet on the western front.”

Not that this is something to worry about. After all,. CLICK Not that this is something to worry about. After all, *CLICK* as Oscar Wilde once said: *CLICK* ”I love to talk about nothing. It’s the only thing I know anything about.” *CLICK* Oscar Wilde: “I love to talk about nothing. It’s the only thing I know anything about.”

Why is there nothing rather than something? Still, this does lead to the inevitable question: *CLICK* Why? *CLICK* Why is there nothing rather than something? Let’s consider a few possible explanations. *CLICK* Why is there nothing rather than something?

1. Too soon Only shows on: Statewide Short-Term Statewide Long-Term ~7 months Statewide Long-Term ~3 months The first possibility: maybe it’s just too soon. *CLICK* After all, currently the separations methodology only affects *CLICK* Statewide Short-Term and *CLICK* Statewide Long-Term projections. *CLICK* These were only released around 7 months and 3 months ago, respectively. That still seems fairly early to hear any responses yet. *CLICK*

2. Sub-state gets more attention Customers are more interested in their own areas than the State Published later this year, into next year Another possibility: maybe we haven’t received feedback because at the moment, only the statewide projections are affected. *CLICK* After all, our customers tend to be more interested in their respective sub-state areas than the State as a whole. *CLICK* California won’t be publishing projections for these areas until at least later this year, with the majority to be published in early 2019. *CLICK*

3. Too abstract for most Methodology changes are “abstract data geek stuff” Numbers are there; the how doesn’t matter Of course, it could also be that since this is just a methodology change, maybe that’s too abstract for most of our customers. *CLICK* One of our local analysts mentioned that methodology changes tend to be seen as “abstract data geek stuff,” and goes over the heads of all but a few customers. Even though our column headings have changed, *CLICK* as long as we’re still publishing numbers the how doesn’t matter as much. *CLICK* From Randy Weaver: “As far as I can tell, none of my customers have noticed the change.  In general I find that they are interested in the final product and tend to regard methodology changes as abstract data geek stuff. A few of my data savvy customers may ask at a future date, but to date that hasn’t occurred."

4. Too good a job explaining All questions answered preemptively Nobody complaining ⇒ Nobody noticed No news is good news? Lastly, there is also the off-chance that maybe all of our preparations leading up to the release worked. *CLICK* Maybe the potential issues were already addressed by the FAQs and fact sheets, and those who would have had questions were given answers preemptively. *CLICK* Plus, in my experience, *CLICK* if nobody on the internet is complaining about a particular tool or resource, *CLICK* then the odds are good that nobody noticed. *CLICK* If that should be the case, then maybe no news is good news. *CLICK*

Next Steps For our next steps, I have only 3 words of advice: *CLICK* Ask again later. As the long-term sub-state projections get published through the coming year, I expect California will hear back from more customers about the change in our methodology. Until then, all we can do is keep preparing. *CLICK*

Thank You Nathan Harbert, Research Data Analyst II Email: Nathan.Harbert@edd.ca.gov Phone: 916-651-5697 California Employment Development Department Workforce Services Branch Labor Market Information Division Workforce Labor Market Information Section Regional Analysis and Support Group Projections Unit Thank you. What questions would you like to ask me?