A Futile Comparison of the Refractive Conditions in the Monterey Bay

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Presentation transcript:

A Futile Comparison of the Refractive Conditions in the Monterey Bay

Purpose Compare refractive profiles from Rawinsonde Data, Helvey Predictions and ETA Upper Air Data. Determine if model data can provide similar predictions capabilities as rawinsonde data.

Why is this any issue? COST !!! New sondes less reliable. GPS costs 2X the amount of old sondes Old sondes (omega) do not provide upper level winds Mesoscale model availability and quality (Theory, Correct or just Bunk)

Rawinsonde Data 21 Profiles (Normal and up/down launches were used) 6 up/down (both profiles showed same results, only kept one profile) 15 Cases remained. Data considered to be truth. 7/15 profiles showed ducting conditions

Method of Collection % Time AscRate Hgt9MSL Pressure Temp RH Dewp Dir Speed WndStat min s m9s m hPa degC % degC deg m9s 0 0 0.0 3 1017.3 5.6 75 1.5 125 3.7 000000000000 0 2 4.0 11 1016.2 6.0 69 0.8 999 9999 111100111100 0 4 7.5 33 1013.5 5.3 72 0.7 999 9999 111100111100 0 6 7.0 45 1012.0 5.1 73 0.7 999 9999 111100111100 0 8 6.7 57 1010.5 4.9 73 0.5 999 9999 111100111100 0 10 7.4 77 1008.0 4.6 74 0.4 100 1.0 111100111100 0 12 7.0 87 1006.8 4.5 74 0.3 999 9999 111100111100 0 14 6.5 94 1005.8 4.5 74 0.3 999 9999 111100111100 0 16 6.9 114 1003.4 4.4 73 0.0 999 9999 111100101100 0 18 6.7 124 1002.2 4.4 72 -0.2 999 9999 111100101100 0 20 6.2 128 1001.7 4.4 72 -0.2 225 1.0 111100101100 0 22 6.2 140 1000.2 4.4 72 -0.2 999 9999 111100101100 0 24 6.5 158 998.0 4.3 71 -0.4 999 9999 111100101100 0 26 6.5 172 996.3 4.2 71 -0.5 999 9999 111100101100 0 28 6.2 176 995.8 4.3 70 -0.6 999 9999 111100101100

Helvey Predictions Algorithms used to predict the formation of a duct based on many meteorological conditions: MSL pressure, curvature of nearest isobar, distance to closest High, distance to closest front, location(Atlantic and Pacific), wind direction, evidence of inversion, surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, proximity to land, seabreeze regime, presence of low level moisture, presence of stratus, cloud types, base heights and coverage. Web based

Helvey Predictions (cont.) 4 Possible Categories: UNLIKELY POSSIBLE PROBABLE VERY LIKELY For cases where ducting is expected a level for the base of the duct is provided. If there is a duct, expect the base at 0. meters ( 0. feet). No Duct Duct

ETA Model 39 Vertical levels Analysis every 6 hours Used analysis from time period closest to launch time at lat/long of launch location.

ETA Data LEVEL HGHT TEMP DWPT WDIR WSPD OMEG 1000.00 230.26 7.02 1.64 36.37 1.98 -0.000876 975.00 437.91 6.41 0.41 30.23 2.70 -0.000121 950.00 651.05 6.20 -1.85 22.10 3.72 0.000628 925.00 869.93 6.17 -5.07 13.81 4.27 0.001004 900.00 1094.45 5.92 -9.07 18.78 4.81 0.000893 875.00 1324.97 5.41 -11.33 15.60 4.36 0.000648 850.00 1561.29 4.71 -13.67 14.38 3.96 0.000687 825.00 1804.27 3.72 -16.23 12.94 3.79 0.000763 800.00 2053.64 2.51 -19.14 6.59 4.83 0.000891 775.00 2309.59 1.48 -23.44 4.52 6.37 0.000922 750.00 2573.03 0.27 -24.03 2.37 7.46 0.001074 725.00 2843.84 -1.25 -25.08 0.68 8.36 0.001194 700.00 3122.46 -3.02 -30.66 354.09 8.66 0.001268 675.00 3409.43 -4.81 -28.13 348.94 8.25 0.001427 650.00 3705.23 -6.72 -28.95 348.50 7.54 0.001726 625.00 4010.09 -8.88 -30.42 350.73 6.59 0.001584 600.00 4324.67 -11.09 -31.99 354.05 5.61 0.001378 575.00 4650.03 -13.48 -34.38 357.99 4.83 0.001145

Presence of Duct

Duct Level

Duct Present Duct Not Present Predictions Duct Present Duct Not Present (Rawinsonde) 0/7 0/5 Duct Not Present Duct Present (Models) 7/0 8/3 Blue = ETA RED = Helvey

Conclusions Radiosondes and ETA Radiosondes are still the best method for retrieving refractive conditions Model output does not have the required vertical resolution and many models are smoothed for customers. Model does not always contain surface effects (model started at 100 m above surface). few observations are found so meso or microscale features are not resolved.

Conclusions Helvey Helvey predictions are well suited for very stable or very unstable conditions. Results questionable when conditions are neutral or slightly stable/unstable. Duct height predictions are unreliable at any time.

Questions Questions GO SONDES !!