3.6. Impact of population and housing census results on population stocks and on LFS and SILC–follow-up DSS Meeting 20-21 September 2012

Structure of the presentation Background Population estimates Coordinated approach National plans Impact assessment EU LFS and EU SILC Principles for a coordinated approach Next steps 20-21 September 2012

1. Background Impact of census results on: 20-21 september 2012 1. Background Impact of census results on: Revision of population estimates Weights used in surveys such as EU LFS and EU SILC. First discussion in the DSS meeting of 21 March 2012 General agreement on a coordinated approach for population estimates and on a set of key principles for LFS and SILC surveys. Bilateral contacts to take place with some countries Further discussions at technical level New discussion in September DSS meeting Input from Migration, LAMAS and Living Conditions WGs

2. Population estimates: a coordinated approach 20-21 September 2012 2. Population estimates: a coordinated approach If revision needed, it should cover the whole intercensal period (2) Revised data uploaded on Eurostat website as soon as they are transmitted by a Member State (3) EU and Euro Area aggregates for past years systematically revised after each transmission of revised annual data from a Member State

2. Population estimates: a coordinated approach 20-21 September 2012 2. Population estimates: a coordinated approach (4) Revised population figures at national level broken down by: sex and single year of age to be transmitted by 15 September 2013 sex, age and citizenship or country of birth to be transmitted by end of December 2013 (5) Revised population estimates at regional level to be transmitted by 15 December 2014

2. Population estimates: national plans 20-21 September 2012 2. Population estimates: national plans Group 1: No need to implement revision   BE, DK, FR, NL, SI, FI, SE, IS, NO, CH, MK Group 2: Bilateral discussions needed for the following reasons: No revision planned/not decided yet but need for revision to be thoroughly discussed DE (internal plan) No revision planned for citizenship or country of birth but consistency with other population data to be discussed MT Revision planned for shorter time series than requested BG, CZ, HU, PL, SK Group 3: Revision planned as requested IE, EE, EL, ES, IT, CY, LV, LT, LU, AT, PT, RO, UK, HR, ME, TR, RS

2. Population estimates: impact assessment Data of 01/01/2011 20-21 September 2012 2. Population estimates: impact assessment Data of 01/01/2011 Pre-census data Post-census data Revision (%) BG 7.504.868 7.369.431 -1.80 CZ 10.532.770 10.485.489 -0.45 CY 804.435 839.751 4.39 LV 2.229.641 2.074.605 -6.95 PT 10.636.979 10.572.157 -0.61 SK 5.435.273 5.392.446 -0.79

3. EU LFS and EU SILC: agreed principles 20-21 Setember 2012 3. EU LFS and EU SILC: agreed principles Revision Justification by countries not sending revised weights that the impact of the new Census on estimates is null or negligible (smaller than the precision used for publication of the headline indicators) Length of the time series to be reweighted backwards: flexibility but a minimum reconstruction of back series to be ensured (to avoid breaks in the time series for the Europe 2020 headline indicators) in time for the mid- term review of EU-2020 LFS: at least from 2010 SILC: at least from 2008

3. EU LFS and EU SILC: agreed principles 20-21 September 2012 3. EU LFS and EU SILC: agreed principles (3) Given high workload, bilateral discussions on the timing required for countries wishing to go beyond the minimum length of reweighted time series (4) New data to be transmitted as soon as they are ready helps spreading the workload for Eurostat (5) Publication by Eurostat of the re-weighted series after transmission and validation.

3. EU LFS: national plans Group 1: No need to implement revision BE, DK, FR, NL, SI, FI, SE, IS, NO, CH, MK, RS Group 2: Need for revision to be further evaluated / discussed DE, EE, ES, HU, TR Group 3: National plans to implement revisions BG, CZ, IE, EL, IT, CY, LV, LT, LU, MT, AT, PL, PT, RO, SK, UK, HR, ME 20-21 September 2012

3. EU SILC: national plans Group 1: No need to implement revision BE, BG, CZ, DK, FR, LU, HU, NL, SI, SK, FI, SE, IS, NO, CH Group 2: Need for revision to be further evaluated / discussed DE, EE, IE, ES, AT, PT, UK Group 3: National plans to implement revisions EL, IT, CY, LV, LT, MT, PL, RO 20-21 September 2012

4. Next steps Further develop the impact assessment 20-21 March 2012 4. Next steps Further develop the impact assessment For population estimates, impact on population by age and sex based on Joint Data Collection (deadline: 15 September 2012) Bilateral discussions with countries of Group 2 March 2013: New discussion in the DSS meeting May or September 2013: Discussion in the ESSC meeting

Confirm national situation in terms of revision strategy 20-21 March 2012 5. DSS are asked to: Confirm national situation in terms of revision strategy Agree on proposed next steps