Research Question Study Area = Twin Cities 7 County Metro Where in the Twin Cities are those most susceptible to heat stroke? This project aims to find the population in the Twin Cities of those who have the highest vulnerability to heat stroke, in order to show where efforts should be launched to provide aid. The Study Area for this project is the Twin Cities 7 County Metropolitan Area.

Model This model shows vulnerability and can be broken down into three parts: location of the urban heat island accessibility to emergency services and location of the population who is most vulnerable to the effects of urban heat island In order to create the final map, the end result of each of these three parts is standardized and added together. The final map shows where those most vulnerable and unable to combat the effects of urban heat island are located.

Vulnerability Model This model is used to create the maps showing the location of those vulnerable to urban heat island and less likely to have the access to emergency services. The variables that were standardized and combined in order to show the vulnerable population are: Percent English Speaking Percent Rent Burdened, Percent Over 65 Percent With No High School Degree Median Age Percent White and Percent Homeowners.

Vulnerability This map shows the location of those who are most vulnerable based on demographics of the area. This map is the result of the model calculations in the previous slide.

Urban Heat Island Model The first part of the model is shown here as the urban heat island model, which is used to map out the location of highest instances of the urban heat island effect. The factors that go into determining the location of the urban heat island are the location of: lakes impervious surfaces (sidewalks and pavement) and biomass (trees and parks)

Urban Heat Island Intermediate Maps Biomass Impervious Surface Water Cover These maps show the location of biomass, impervious surfaces, and water bodies in the Twin Cities 7 county metro area. These are all contributing factors of urban heat island that were added together in the model shown in the previous slide.

Urban Heat Island This map shows the areas where the urban heat island effect is highest.

Access Model In order to determine the access the population has to the help of emergency services, the cost distance tool is used. The merge tool joined together the layers of fire departments and hospitals to show the emergency services. This output was used with a cost surface in the cost distance tool to determine the accessibility of the study area to these emergency services.

Cost Distance Tool Calculates friction of distance over an area Cost Distance Tool Example Calculates friction of distance over an area The cost distance tool is used to calculate the accessibility. In this instance, the cost distance to hospitals and fire departments are measured with the cost surface of agriculture. It shows the difficulty to get to these services by incorporating the location of agricultural areas. By using a cost surface in the cost distance tool, the accessibility of a point to a location through that cost surface is calculated. http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#//009z00000018000000

Accessibility The first map on the left shows the location of emergency services before the points are merged together. The second map on the right shows the cost distance to those emergency services in the twin cities. The darker areas are where it will be the hardest travel to get the those services. This map is the result of the model in the previous slide.

Final Model The final model shows the combination of the previous steps, standardization of those results, and combining them together to come up with the population who is vulnerable to heat stroke.

Final Map This final map on the right shows the final combination of the standardized accessibility, vulnerability, and urban heat island maps. It shows the location of the most vulnerable population in the twin cities with the exception of the uninhabited areas. This map can be used to analyze where efforts should be concentrated by charities in order to create the most help for the most people, and effectively use their resources. This map is the result of the complete model, shown in the previous slide.

Conclusions The areas most in need of help are located in St. Paul, and the surrounding areas. North Minneapolis also has a large population of those vulnerable. The effects are most centralized in the twin cities, and less prevalent in the suburbs.