Volume 3, Issue 2, Pages e94-e104 (February 2016)

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Volume 3, Issue 2, Pages e94-e104 (February 2016) Effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis and combination HIV prevention for men who have sex with men in the UK: a mathematical modelling study Dr Narat Punyacharoensin, PhD, Prof William John Edmunds, PhD, Daniela De Angelis, PhD, Valerie Delpech, FFPH, Prof Graham Hart, PhD, Prof Jonathan Elford, PhD, Alison Brown, PhD, Prof O Noel Gill, FFPH, Richard Guy White, PhD The Lancet HIV Volume 3, Issue 2, Pages e94-e104 (February 2016) DOI: 10.1016/S2352-3018(15)00056-9 Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Estimated numbers of new HIV infections between 2001 and 2020 in the status quo and the maximum effect of individual intervention scenarios at 100% coverage Light grey lines show estimates from 1093 simulations in the status-quo scenario. The dark red line shows median estimates with IQRs (light red lines) from these simulations. Dots and error bars show national estimates in England and Wales during 2001–10.2 The average goodness-of-fit of the model is 94·4%. The coloured lines depict the median estimates of new HIV infections during 2014–20 in the seven individual intervention scenarios with 100% coverage. The Lancet HIV 2016 3, e94-e104DOI: (10.1016/S2352-3018(15)00056-9) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Median estimates of the total numbers of HIV infections prevented during 2014–20 Estimates for varying intervention coverage (A) and PrEP coverage and effectiveness (B). Dashed line shows the median estimate of the total number of HIV infections in the status-quo scenario. For HIV testing programmes, coverage excluded men who had already been tested at least once a year in the status-quo scenario. For test and treat, the coverage is the proportion of men diagnosed with HIV at CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or higher and excluded men who had already been treated in the status quo. PrEP=pre-exposure prophylaxis. The Lancet HIV 2016 3, e94-e104DOI: (10.1016/S2352-3018(15)00056-9) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions