Scenarios and Scanning Jessica Palmer History Present Scanning Trends: Social, Cultural, Political, Economic Proposed Future Scenarios Informed Decision Making Futuring Methodology Scenarios and Scanning Jessica Palmer

Scenarios Benefits Challenges “Don't limit a child to your own learning, for he was born in another time.” - Rabindranath Tagore Scenarios Benefits Challenges Organize information into a manageable framework Encourage strategic decision making Support long-term goal setting Planning and preparation Highlights strengths and weaknesses of possible decisions Accuracy Variables and Unknowns Steady Influx of New Information Constantly evolving scenarios Complexity Multiple scenarios can be overwhelming Single scenario can be too simplistic Focus on optimistic scenarios under preparedness

Scanning Benefits Challenges “The principle goal of education in the schools should be creating men and women who are capable of doing new things, not simply repeating what other generations have done.” - Jean Piage Scanning Benefits Challenges Systematic approach to information gathering Focuses on trends Considers multiple influences: Technologic, social, historic, cultural, etc. Internet provides multitudes of resources for scanning Gives context to inform scenarios Enormous scope of resource material to scan Some variables unknown Information becomes obsolete quickly Viral trends/information spreading rapidly

Resources Barseghian, T. (2011, Feb 4) Three trends that will shape the future of curriculum. Accessed Via: http://ww2.kqed.org/mindshift/2011/02/04/three-trends-that-will-shape-the- future-of-curriculum/ Chermack, T. J., & Coons, L. M. (2015). Integrating scenario planning and design thinking: Learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum. Futures. Vol. 10. Clardy, A. (2011). Six Worlds of Tomorrow. World Future Review (World Future Society), 3(2), 37-48. Cohen, Donald and K. Narayanaswamy. Using First-Order Logic to Query Heterogeneous Internet Data Sources. Procedia Computer Science. Volume 62, 2015, Pages 170– 177 doi:10.1016/j.procs.2015.08.431 Farris, David and Tracy, Drew. School Shooting Preparedness Requires Complex Training. Homeland Security and Public Safety. July 5, 2013. Accessed Via: http://www.emergencymgmt.com/safety/Preparing-for-School-Shooting- Scenarios.html Horizon Report K-12 Edition. (2014). 2014 annual report of the NMC. Retrieved from http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2014-nmc-horizon-report-k12-EN.pdf KahnAcademy. Year 2060: Education Predictions. December 27, 2011. Accessed Via: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiKrFcgVSIU Kawamoto, Tatsuro; Hatano, Naomichi. Viral spreading of daily information in online social networks. Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. Science Direct. July 15, 2014 KnowledgeWork (n.d.) Forecast 3.0:A Glimpse into the Future of Learning. Accessed Via: http://knowledgeworks.org/sites/default/files/A-Glimpse-into-the-Future-of- Learning-Infographic_0.pdf KnowledgeWork (n.d.) The Learning System of 2025: Scenario Overview. Accessed Via: http://knowledgeworks.org/sites/default/files/u1/Scenario%20Overview%2011x17.p df Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220–239. New Media Consortium (NMC). http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/ (2015). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Giving Knowledge for Free; THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES. http://www.oecd.org/edu/ceri/38654317.pdf (2007).Patton, Kermit M. The role of scanning in open intelligence systems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 72: 9. November 2005. Abstract. Sobrero, P., (2004). The steps for futuring. Journal of Extention, 42(3). Wilburn, Kathleen M. and Wilburn, Ralph H. Scenarios and Strategic Decision Making. Journal of Management Policy and Practice vol. 12(4) 2011 World Future Society (n.d.) Methods. Accessed Via: http://www.wfs.org/methods World Future Society (n.d.) Dictionary of Foresight. Accessed Via: http://www.wfs.org/dictionary