Thinking the Unthinkable in the New Security Environment Dr. Liviu Muresan EURISC Foundation

New Developments in the Security Environment 9/11 – a new chapter in terrorism start of the financial-economic crisis, ascension of organized crime beginning of major disruptions due to e.g. natural hazards and technological failures - earthquakes (Haiti), volcanoes (Iceland), earthquakes and tsunami (Japan), flooding (Pakistan, USA), nuclear power plant accident (Japan) 2011 – start of a massive immigration wave affecting EU- member states (Italy a case in point) 2012 – Arab Spring, replacement of autocracies with democratically elected Islamic regimes or civil wars and trade disruption 2

Thinking the Unthinkable (1) New types of terrorist attacks on key critical infrastructures (energy incl. electricity, administration, water, food, health, banking…) Man-made disasters, collapse of technologies, enemy within; Major natural hazards with long-term consequences on business continuity and quality of life; Climate change with direct impact short and long-term effects (droughts with effect on food, water supply a.o.); 3

Thinking the Unthinkable (2) Large-scale social unrests, long-term and in unexpected domains; Limits of governance capacity at central and local level due various shortages in human, financial means, incl. lack of time with domino effect. Cosmic weather forecast (sun storms and others). Black Swan, Feral Futures and others 4

The South Caucasus – Middle East Case Study 5

Possible future map of the region – Lt Col Ralph Peters, US National War Academy,

The Pentagram of Outside Interests 7 South Caucasus Russian Interests Central Asia and China Iran and Aghanistan 2014 Near East Leviathan Game US, EU, EU member countries, Norway a.o. The Elephant in the Asian Room The Hunt for Growth Further resources discovery and neighborhood development Fragility at the gates Source: EURISC

The Azerbaijani Example 8 Azerbaijans worrisome strategic universe Russian dysfunctions and jealous interference with former Caucasus possessions (North, as well as Georgia, Armenia+Azerbaijan) 700 km border with Iran – threat of spillover of conflict, as well as subversion of civil society. Confirmed cyber-attacks Latent tensions with Armenia over enclaves, Russia fanning the flames Increasingly important relations with Turkey, as part of its value chain to the West and counterweight to Russia. EU and Western clumsiness with providing for Azerbaijani interests while attending to their own. Regarding Turkey - common ethnic and linguistic foundations, and there are growing economic, social, educational, political, and military ties – former Turkish PM Abdulfaz Elcibey claimed one nation, two states. Source: Adapted Eurasias Hinge… published by GMF

The Great Game 9 Eastern NATO with Turkish system at its core? The coming age of natural gas and South Caucasus potential for funneling GCC fossil fuels to Europe

The region benefits from greater attention as anti- western sentiment in other energy-significant areas refocuses western clients Energy Power Games – Russia, China, Norway, Germany EU economic efforts in region are muted by an emphasis on individual EU state ambitions France, for instance, plays two cards – Azerbaijani energy trade and support for the Armenians (and their strong lobby) rivaled only by that of the US The rise of Iran leads to greater influence and economic opportunity for South Caucasus as transit area New Actors, New Perspectives 10

After that, some food for thought 11

Thinking the Unthinkable (3) Problems cannot be solved by same level of thinking that created them. (Albert Einstein) 12

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